UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Feb.) February’s money and credit figures suggest that households’ appetite for debt has taken a bit of a hit, after holding up well following the EU referendum. But we don’t think that borrowing growth... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates to stay low in Thailand With the economy showing signs of recovery and inflation back within its target band, the Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to leave interest rates on hold at 1.50% today came as no surprise. Looking... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Recent dip in oil prices not a major concern for the Gulf The recent drop in oil prices, from around US$56pb at the start of March to just over US$51pb at present, is unlikely to be a major cause for alarm in the Gulf. For one thing, oil prices are still... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (Mar.) Despite softening in March, Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator still points to a surge in GDP growth. With the survey breakdown suggesting that domestic demand is increasingly driving growth, the... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Policymakers playing catch-up after de facto devaluation Recent reforms to Nigeria’s FX regime have further complicated an already convoluted system, which includes a variety of exchange rates. In this Watch, we provide an overview of the state of the FX... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Mar.) The rebound in small business confidence in March largely reflects seasonal patterns and the bigger picture is that the survey points to only modest gains in industrial activity. What’s more, the... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q1) Growth in Vietnam eased in Q1, due in large part to the weakness of the industrial sector. However, with exports likely to remain strong and private sector credit continuing to expand at a rapid clip... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The renewed rise in retail values in February is a positive sign, especially as other data also point to a rebound in private consumption this quarter. 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil breathes sigh of relief as meat scandal subsides The scandal over Brazil’s meat sector, which at one point appeared to threaten the country’s economic recovery, seems to have faded just as quickly as it escalated. The crisis exploded following the... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC looks through rising inflation… for now The press release accompanying the Hungarian MPC’s meeting earlier today remained dovish, but we think the Council is probably underestimating how quickly inflation will rise in the second half of... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The surge in the Conference Board consumer confidence index to its highest level in more than 16 years suggests that the apparent weakness of real consumption growth in the first quarter will prove... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Europe’s oil demand should continue to grow in 2017 Robust economic growth in Europe’s key economies should support oil demand this year. Indeed, a pickup in global economic growth is likely to help to absorb the excess oil supplies in the market which... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jan.) House prices made a strong start to 2017, with a 0.6% m/m gain in January. That pushed the annual rate up to a 31-month high of 5.9%. Very tight market conditions suggest that price growth will... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The MPC’s sterling conundrum The Monetary Policy Committee might be relieved to see the pound regaining a bit of ground in recent weeks. But it shouldn’t want the exchange rate to rise too far. 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will equities in EMs continue to outperform those elsewhere? Emerging market (EM) equities have gained more ground, despite the Trump “reflation” trade in the US stock market faltering. But we doubt that they will continue to perform so well for long. 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
