Asia Economics Weekly Duterte undermining reform prospects in the Philippines Struggles to push through much-needed tax reform in the Philippines are the first sign that President Duterte’s controversial war on drugs and offensive behaviour is undermining the efforts of his... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Feb.) The recovery in mortgage approvals stalled in February. Looking ahead, while we expect lending to rise in 2017, a sluggish outlook for buy-to-let, combined with subdued levels of buyer interest... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Is there really a shortage of zinc? The price of zinc has climbed higher since the start of 2017 on expectations that strong demand coupled with dwindling supply, following last year’s output cuts and mine closures, would lead to a... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What does the future hold for Chinese equities? Although our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth in China’s economy has picked up significantly over the past year, we expect growth to slow in the coming quarters as policy support is withdrawn... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Brussels offices offer solid returns for core investors We expect Brussels office rents to climb slowly over the next five years. But even if this proves too tall an order, we think the city’s high initial yield should make it attractive for prospective... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) While the euro-zone Composite PMI points to the strongest pace of GDP growth in two years in Q1, there are still fundamental reasons to expect growth to slow in 2017. As such, policymakers will not... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly House price surge unlikely to boost construction Residential property prices in Japan have risen unusually fast since the launch of Quantitative and Qualitative Easing, led by an investment-driven surge in condominium prices. But there are signs... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update BoP data suggest low external vulnerabilities While there was a slight widening in India’s current account deficit in Q4, the more important point is that the external shortfall remains small. Given also that FDI inflows remain strong, the... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka hikes rates, further tightening likely Today’s 25bp rate hike by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) is unlikely to be the last in the current tightening cycle. A combination of rapid credit growth, rising inflation and a weakening... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Banks and their net interest margins Although Australian banks will probably soon be hit by more stringent mortgage lending rules, they can take some comfort from an interest rate environment that will probably be fairly favourable over... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The drop in the manufacturing PMI in March is hardly a disaster as the index had climbed to a three-year high in February. More problematic is that the survey points to a renewed moderation in price... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is the Phillips Curve dead? The forces which have weakened the relationship between unemployment and inflation in recent decades are likely to persist, or even gather strength, in the coming years. If so, wage and price... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: provincial spending cap positive, but hurdles remain The proposed spending cap on Argentina’s provincial governments is a positive step and could in theory narrow the overall public sector budget deficit by almost 1% of GDP by 2019. However, it’s not... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Real earnings growth starting to be squeezed With CPI inflation picking up quite quickly and nominal wage growth remaining subdued, households are already facing a squeeze on growth in their real incomes. Indeed, there are some signs that it is... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fresh Saudi devaluation fears look wide of the mark The recent dip in oil prices has raised concerns in some quarters that the Saudi authorities may devalue the riyal, but we find this highly unlikely. Indeed, the probability that the dollar peg will... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
