Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) February’s euro-zone money and credit data point to steady economic growth. But they still suggest that core inflation will remain very weak. 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Can the Treasury-gilt gap widen further? Over the next year, we expect the Fed to hike rates faster than markets expect while the Bank of England keeps policy on hold. If we are right, the gap between US and UK short rates will continue to... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Prices under pressure The price of oil took a tumble this week on persistent concerns about high US stocks, while copper also fell as the strike at the world’s largest mine was called off. More generally, there were signs... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Exit bill to prove key point of contention With the Government set to formally notify the EU of the UK’s wish to leave the bloc next week, some preliminary detail has emerged on how the EU will approach negotiations. It is expected to insist... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Is the future brighter for equities in Europe than in the US? 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Have we underestimated sterling’s inflation impact? CPI inflation surprised on the upside again last week, largely due to a few components that tend to be more responsive to exchange rate movements. This begs the question of whether we (and many others... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly First-quarter GDP growth blitz unlikely to be sustained The recent run of positive economic data suggest that growth in first-quarter GDP could turn out to be as high as 3.0% annualised, stronger than the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 2.5%. The underlying... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Mar.) The “flash” PMIs, published by Markit earlier today, suggest that a strong and broadbased global recovery has continued in March, even though the numbers for Japan and the US slipped a little compared... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trump’s agenda gets a reality check The debate over the Republicans’ health care bill last week is the clearest indication yet that implementing President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda won’t be as easy as he may have hoped. Although... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Industrial sector faces constrained supply Capital values are slowly reversing their post-referendum dips, with steady growth in rental values playing the dominant role. However, with investment market activity still relatively muted, a rapid... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Are we too bullish on oil prices? Steadily rising crude stocks have sent prices tumbling recently. This Energy Watch looks at whether our assumptions about OPEC, US shale oil production and demand are still valid and where the... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Divergent outlook for monetary policy in Sweden and Norway Underlying Swedish inflation is set to pick up further and means that the Riksbank’s ultra-loose policy is no longer justified. Conversely, the outlook for Norwegian inflation calls for an interest... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank starts slow but lengthy easing cycle Having cut the one-week repo rate by 25bp earlier in the day, Russia’s central bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina, used her post-meeting press conference to stress that further monetary easing will be... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The small decline in the headline inflation rate to 2.0% in February, from 2.1%, was softer than expected, particularly considering higher gasoline price inflation. The bigger story though continues... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The 1.7% m/m rise in headline durable goods orders in February was helped by another strong rise in commercial aircraft orders, but the improvement in underlying orders provides further evidence that... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s rise not a threat to the recovery The euro’s rise against the US dollar over the past few weeks has probably reflected speculation of ECB tapering, as well as perceptions of diminished political risk in the currency union. We doubt... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
