Latin America Economics Update Banxico’s peso hedges unlikely to have a big impact The Mexican central bank’s new programme of auctioning currency hedges marks a significant departure from its previous FX intervention policy, but is currently small in scale. As such, we doubt it... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Feb.) February’s weak batch of Russian activity data were distorted by working-day effects, and we think the underlying picture is still one of a gradual recovery. 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi consumer spending continues to struggle Household consumption in Saudi Arabia slowed sharply last year in the face of fiscal austerity and, while low-level indicators suggest that the worst may now be over, there’s little sign of a strong... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: MPC hints at shift to more orthodox policymaking Today’s MPC statement suggested that policymakers are – at the very least – considering a shift towards tightening monetary conditions. The communication was, as ever, a bit unclear. We do not expect... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish growth to slow regardless of politics Spain’s political situation is fragile and we cannot rule out a snap election being called this year. But regardless of the politics, deteriorating economic fundamentals mean that economic growth will... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Swiss economic outlook improves but deflation still a risk Although Switzerland’s economy registered another disappointing quarter of growth in Q4, expanding by just 0.1% q/q, business and consumer surveys paint a more positive picture for 2017. The KOF... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack South Korea elections: key names to watch Political campaigning in South Korea ahead of presidential elections due on 9th May is now well underway. Given the extent of public anger against ousted former president Park Geun-hye and her ruling... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Mar.) The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey illustrates that the drop in the pound continues to have some beneficial effects, with the manufacturing sector in particular appearing to have put in a good... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Jan.) House price growth accelerated in January according to the official index. But recent revisions to the index have all been downwards, suggesting that today’s data should be interpreted with care. 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Public Finances (Feb.) February’s CPI figures have increased the chances of an earlier interest rate hike than markets have been expecting. Meanwhile, the fall in public borrowing was in line with the OBR’s new downwardly... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Departure of BoJ hawks suggests policy will remain loose The impending exit of two hawks from the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board suggests that calls for the Bank to scale back policy support will diminish. The Bank is likely to reduce the volume of its asset... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Are we underestimating the upside risks for property? Leading indicators of all-property yield movements suggest that yields could harden by 30bp-50bp this year. And provided that rental values grow by around 1%, capital values would rise by up to 10% as... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would an early General Election sap the economy’s strength? Political uncertainty is back on the agenda, with speculation of an early General Election and confirmation that Article 50 will be triggered on March 29th coming on top of the renewed threat of a... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response ABS House Prices (Q4) The acceleration in house price inflation in the fourth quarter of last year has undoubtedly continued into the start of this year and will remain a thorn in the side of the Reserve Bank of Australia... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Strong employment growth still not lifting wages everywhere Labour markets have continued to recover in all of the four major advanced economies in recent years but prospects for wage growth still differ considerably. The rise in earnings growth in the US is... 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
