Global Economics Update Are we now in a global tightening cycle? There is an increasingly common view that we are on the cusp of a global policy tightening cycle. However, while we no longer expect many central banks to loosen policy further, we expect interest... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack PBOC tightening triggered by Fed action People’s Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan made clear at the National People’s Congress that the trend would be towards further monetary tightening over coming months. So today’s decision by the PBOC to... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Will OPEC extend its production cuts? Steadily rising crude stocks and falling prices have made it more likely that OPEC will prolong its production cuts beyond June. However, there are significant hurdles which will need to be overcome... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How will the rental market react to rising interest rates? Other things equal, higher Treasury yields means investors will require a higher return from property. Some investors may therefore start easing back on acquisitions, putting downward pressure on... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Policy outlook favours local currency over dollar bonds After raising rates yesterday, we expect the Fed to continue tightening the screws and hike by more than investors are expecting over the next couple of years. However, we think that few emerging... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Has the sustainable level of London office rents risen? Office rents in central London have never been higher. Even in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, they are well above the levels which appear to have been sustainable in the past. However, since the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities unfazed by US monetary tightening Yesterday’s US rate hike was widely anticipated, but we expect the Fed to accelerate the pace of tightening in 2017. That said, US interest rates will remain historically low and, in any case, other... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC strikes a more hawkish tone The decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to leave interest rates on hold and the scale of its asset purchases unchanged, at the same time as the US Fed tightened policy again, highlights the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Pick-up in growth will prompt more Fed tightening We suspect that any fiscal stimulus will now be delayed until early next year, but the recent strength of the survey evidence suggests that GDP growth will still be a healthy 2.3% this year, up from 1... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Feb.) A rise in single-family construction helped total housing starts edge out a small monthly gain of 3% in February. With homebuilder confidence at a 12-year high, partly down to an expectation that... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fed gives Turkish MPC cover to tackle inflation problem The Turkish central bank had good domestic reasons to tighten monetary policy today given growing concerns about inflation. But the Fed’s rate hike last night made their job easier by providing some... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia holds again, rates unlikely to change this year Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates on hold today and struck a cautious tone in its statement which followed the meeting. Looking ahead, we think that worries about inflation and concerns about... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa’s economies finally turning the corner We believe that the economic cycle in Sub-Saharan Africa is turning; after slowing since 2014, growth will accelerate this year. This turnaround will be driven by both global and local factors. The... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Inflation will undershoot Norges Bank target in coming years The Norges Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged came despite a deterioration in the outlook for inflation. Policymakers remain concerned about the impact of loose monetary policy on the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB on hold, but fight against franc will need to continue The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold was as expected given the recent rise in inflation. But with euro-zone political developments likely to put upward pressure on the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
