Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Key EM central banks set to loosen policy despite Fed hike The Fed’s decision to raise interest rates this week has created ripples rather than waves among EM central banks. Policymakers in China and Turkey followed by tightening policy too, but this was as... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jan.) The further 0.7% m/m increase in manufacturing sales volumes in January, partly driven by higher activity in the petroleum industry, provides further evidence that the economy maintained its momentum... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Feb.) The weaker-than-anticipated batch of Polish activity figures for February confirmed our suspicion that January’s extremely strong data couldn’t be sustained. Nonetheless, the big picture is that the... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What is the state of play as election season kicks off? Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte described last week’s election as the “quarter finals to beat the wrong sort of populism”. The forthcoming French presidential election will be the semi-final, and the... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the MPC right to turn hawkish? While it came as no surprise that the US Federal Reserve pressed ahead and raised interest rates last week, markets were given a jolt by an unexpected split on the UK Monetary Policy Committee, with... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investor intentions show overall demand staying strong The findings of CBRE’s Investor Intentions Survey support some of the key themes and key calls that we have highlighted for 2017 in European real estate markets. 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities shrug off tighter monetary policy The prices of most commodities rose in the wake of the 25bp hike in US interest rates and the 10bp rise in China’s interest rates this week. While tighter monetary policy represents a headwind for... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will the Korea-US free-trade agreement survive Trump? The risk that the US may seek to renegotiate or even pull out from the Korea-US free trade agreement (KORUS) is a big concern for Korean exporters. However, there are reasons to think the US may... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Rate setters give markets pause for thought Ahead of this month’s Fed and MPC interest rate setting meetings, the narrative had been one of markets preparing for a historic divergence in monetary policy between the US and UK. Sterling had been... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Feb.) According to our latest detailed estimates, China witnessed a net inflow of capital last month for the first time in almost three years. Tighter capital controls and seasonal factors helped drive this... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Growing chance of Czech koruna overshoot after cap exit The jump in speculative inflows to the Czech Republic since the start of the year has increased the likelihood that the central bank will bring forward its planned exit from the koruna cap and that... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank cuts interest rates, signals further easing Chile’s central bank cut its policy interest rate by 25bp, to 3.00%, and used the accompanying statement to signal that further easing is likely over the coming months. This supports our non-consensus... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook A regional rebound The economies of Emerging Europe have made a good start to the year and we expect growth to pick up further in the coming quarters. The recovery in the region’s largest economy, Russia, is likely to... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Much faster wage growth still needed We wouldn’t read much into the smaller pay hikes for employees of large manufacturing firms that have been agreed in this year’s Shunto wage negotiations. Wage growth for most workers looks set to... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Has house price inflation reached its peak? House prices in Australia are rising at their fastest pace since 2010 and the recent surge in auction clearance rates suggests that a further pick-up is on the cards. However, most other leading... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Dollar debt risks building in Argentina Argentina’s dollar debt burden as a share of GDP is now one of the largest in the EM world. What’s more, it is concentrated largely in the public sector. This leaves the government vulnerable to... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
