Emerging Europe Economics Update What to expect from Turkey’s constitutional referendum The focus ahead of Turkey’s constitutional referendum, taking place in a month’s time, has been on the political ramifications, but relatively little has been said about the economic impact. Our sense... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch ado about nothing? The next Dutch government is likely to be a centre-right coalition with a broadly similar stance towards the EU as before and a slightly looser fiscal policy. But the balance of power in the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The People’s Bank follows the Fed The People’s Bank has followed the Fed in raising the interest rate it charges when providing funds in China’s interbank market. But we believe that tighter policy in China continues to be primarily... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Markets are overestimating the chance of rate hikes next year While there is a consensus among economists and financial markets alike that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep rates on hold at 1.75% when it meets next Thursday 23 rd March, we believe that... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Feb.) The stronger than expected rise in the unemployment rate and the pick-up in the underutilisation rate, which is a broader measure of spare capacity, suggests that there is still plenty of slack in the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q4 2016) While GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year was weaker than most had expected, this was largely the result of temporary factors and as such we expect growth in New Zealand to bounce back early... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil stocks declined slightly last week, after rising for nine consecutive weeks, as net imports fell sharply. Product stocks also continued to slump. 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Central banks’ gold demand starts the year on a positive note The latest data show that central banks’ holdings of gold increased in January. However, we think that a strong US dollar will be a major headwind for gold demand from the official sector this year. 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 business as usual despite Trump? The most noteworthy thing about this weekend’s gathering of finance ministers and central bank governors in Baden-Baden may be that it turns out to be as uneventful as previous G20 meetings. If so... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Jan.) Peru’s economy rebounded strongly in January due largely to a pick-up in the mining sector. But with a strike underway at the country’s largest copper mine, we suspect the improvement in GDP growth... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Regional France retail rental growth to slow from 2018 Weaker real wage growth in France will cause consumer spending growth to slow over the next couple of years. This will lead to softer demand for prime high street units in the French regional cities... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update When will unemployment in Brazil stabilise? The various forecasts circulating of the GDP growth rate needed to stabilize unemployment in Brazil tend to miss the important point that productivity growth is typically faster in the early stages of... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Premier Li signals lower emphasis on growth Premier Li Keqiang’s remarks to the press today following the conclusion of the National People’s Congress reinforce our view that policymakers will allow a renewed slowdown in economic growth this... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Feb.) A drop back in gasoline prices restricted consumer prices to a more modest 0.1% m/m gain in February, but unfavourable base effects nevertheless pushed the annual CPI inflation rate up to a five-year... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Retail sales stumble The fall in retail sales in January is disappointing given the improving picture painted by yesterday’s mining and manufacturing figures. Even so, we expect that growth will pick up later in the year... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
