Economic growth has picked up recently, but we aren’t convinced the economy has turned the corner, particularly not when that growth is still so unbalanced. Non-commodity exports are lagging and business investment will decline further this year. Meanwhile, with provincial policymakers now threatening to intervene in the housing market, there is a greater risk of a potentially prolonged housing downturn. We expect GDP growth to slow from 2.0% in 2017 to only 1.2% in 2018.
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