Japan Data Response Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jan.) January’s first fall in industrial output in six months combined with downbeat forecasts for the following months suggest that the economy had a weak start to the New Year. Nor are we particularly... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Policy divergence set to resume, but probably not until June It seems increasingly likely that the much anticipated Trump fiscal stimulus will not take place until later this year. But economic growth and headline inflation have both picked up in the US and... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Total returns prospects still strong across the region Concerns about higher inflation and potential rises in interest rates have seen bond yields rise in the last few months. Nevertheless, we think the outlook for bond yields and therefore, property... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Rental growth to start driving relative market performance We see euro-zone GDP growth slowing this year due to the drag from higher inflation and political uncertainty. With no monetary policy tightening on the horizon, further falls in prime yields will... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for US equities and bonds? Although US equities have surged and US government bonds have rallied since Donald Trump entered the White House, we don’t expect this pattern to continue. 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Irish economy will continue to outperform We doubt that Prime Minister Enda Kenny’s apparently imminent resignation will have a major macroeconomic effect. More generally, the economy looks well placed to continue growing strongly. 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) The rebound in durable goods orders in January was entirely due to a strong rise in commercial aircraft orders. The underlying details of the report were a little disappointing, but the survey... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the UK’s “exit bill” thwart Brexit negotiations? Once Article 50 has been triggered, one of the first things that will be discussed is the UK’s “divorce settlement” – or the degree to which the UK will cover its share of pending EU commitments and... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Jan.) The latest import data out of China and India show weak demand for gold in the two largest consumers. While China’s data could be distorted by the timing of the New Year, in India the liquidity crunch... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Surging supply to keep a lid on LNG prices The price of spot LNG in Asia has been in freefall in recent weeks as temporary supply outages have been resolved and demand has cooled. We expect prices to fall further given ongoing expansions to... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Feb.) February’s EC business and consumer survey suggests that political uncertainty has yet to damage euro-zone growth, which appears to have accelerated at the start of the year. 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) In aggregate, February’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were a little weaker than in January, but overall they add to the impression that the region’s economies made a... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital values up for fourth month With investment activity and yield movements subdued, the latest data were yet another reminder that rental values will be the primary determinant of capital value growth this year. What’s more, this... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) January’s euro-zone money and credit data point to steady economic growth. But they still suggest that core inflation will remain very weak. 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to fall by more than most expect The decision by Colombia’s central bank to cut its policy interest rate by 25bp (to 7.25%) caught most off guard but was in line with our expectations. The statement accompanying the decision was... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
