Industrial Metals Update A weak start to the year for China’s metals imports China’s metals imports were broadly weak in January. This is in line with the most recent activity data which show that the Chinese economy, while still holding up well, may have lost some momentum in... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will the export recovery last? A jump in export demand provided a boost to economic growth in the region’s most trade dependent economies last quarter, with Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore all expanding at their fastest pace in... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Jan.) Mortgage approvals picked up at the start of 2017, supported by record low interest rates and a solid economic backdrop. But continued weakness in buy-to-let lending will temper the recovery across... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rebound in EM currencies unlikely to last Having lost ground against the dollar in the aftermath of the US elections, emerging market (EM) currencies have staged a recovery since President Trump’s inauguration. Nonetheless, we still expect... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (Feb.) Despite edging down in February, the NIER’s Economic Tendency Indicator still points to a surge in Swedish GDP growth. And with inflation expectations rising far above the Riksbank’s target, the Bank... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What next for Japan’s free trade agreements? With the writing on the wall for the TPP, Japan’s government believes that its next best bet would be a bilateral deal with the US. In principle, this could generate sizeable benefits by opening Japan... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Catch-up wage growth is a pipe dream The idea that Australian employees could enjoy a period of “catch-up” wage growth is a pipe dream. It doesn’t stack up in theory and it doesn’t stack up in practice. It’s far more likely that cyclical... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil inventories increased last week, marking seven weeks of consecutive gains, though at a slower rate. On the other hand, gasoline stocks fell. 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: about that trade surplus with the US… Changes to US trade statistics that are apparently being considered by the Trump administration would double Mexico’s trade surplus with the US as reported by the US Census Bureau, from $60bn to... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will equities react to Trump’s “phenomenal” tax plan? An overhaul of the US corporate tax code would probably provide a net boost to S&P 500 earnings. Nonetheless, we suspect that it would be small and that it has now been largely discounted in equity... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Has the US stock market got too excited about tax reform? 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Feb.) Mexican inflation was unchanged at 4.7% y/y in the first-half of February and, along with the rebound in the peso over the past month, this could convince the central bank to keep interest rate on... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What next for Russia’s economy? Russia’s recent recession has opened up a sizeable output gap, one consequence of which is that GDP growth in the next couple of years could be a little stronger than most expect. However, the economy... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: New FX rate, no sign of full devaluation yet The introduction of another official FX rate in Nigeria is not (as many seem to suspect) the prelude to abolishing FX controls. Over the longer term, however, we still expect that a weakening of the... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth hits three-year high, but may be about to peak Our GDP Trackers suggest that the EM world is now growing at its fastest pace in almost three years. However, with China’s economy likely to lose steam over the course of this year, this may be about... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Feb.) February’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey made for disappointing reading. On top of the poor official retail sales figures for the start of the year, this adds to the evidence that the hit to consumer... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
