India Economics Update Bond yields jump after RBI surprises markets Indian bond yields have risen since the Reserve Bank of India surprised markets in early February by keeping rates on hold and signalling the end of its loosening cycle. Looking ahead, yields are... 20th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Have Paris retail rents reached a plateau? Stagnant rental values in the prime Paris retail sector over the past couple of years have seen the view that rental values have reached a ceiling gain momentum. But we believe that the factors which... 20th February 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q4) Thailand’s economy ended 2016 on a subdued note. A combination of lacklustre external demand, high household debt and continued political uncertainty will keep growth subdued in the quarters ahead. 20th February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Jan.) The tailwind from rising export prices was offset by a drop in export volumes in January. By contrast, import volumes recorded the strongest increase since mid-2014. 20th February 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities consolidate While a slight weakening of the US dollar provided some support to prices this week, individual demand and supply fundamentals were the main drivers. Oil prices fell as a further rise in US stocks... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Parliamentary “ping-pong” unlikely to delay A50 While the possibility of Parliamentary “ping-pong” suggests that a triggering of Article 50 at the EU summit on 9th & 10th March is unlikely, the Prime Minister’s self-imposed deadline of the end of... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Property yield gaps squeezed by rising bond yields Bond yields increased in Q4 and have generally climbed further since. This has meant that, despite a counter-balancing effect from lower equity dividend yields, property yields have begun to look... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Higher inflation starts to bite There are growing signs that the post-referendum strength in consumer spending is beginning to fade. With CPI inflation set to pick up to around 3% by the end of this year, growth in households’ real... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EC’s optimistic forecasts underestimate key risks In its latest economic forecasts published last week, the European Commission (EC) provided a fairly upbeat outlook for the euro-zone economy, expecting it to sustain its current pace of growth in... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Can wage growth keep up with rising inflation? Last week’s labour market and inflation figures have fueled concerns that the impact of rising inflation on real earnings will cause a significant slowdown in consumer spending growth. Indeed, rising... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Move-up buyers inflating housing bubble Toronto’s growing housing bubble is being blamed on desperate first-time buyers chasing a dwindling inventory of homes for sale, but that’s a red herring. The truth is that it’s mainly being driven by... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Business sentiment surges in aftermath of Trump win The rise in the NFIB index in January indicated that, in the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s election victory, small business owners were the most optimistic they had been in more than a decade... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jan.) The much stronger-than-expected batch of Polish activity figures for January was flattered by working-day effects, but overall the data suggest that the economy may have grown by as much as 3.5% y/y... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update London’s employment prospects healthy The rate of employment growth in London has roughly halved since May. However, we think that occupier demand will hold up relatively well. Not only do PMIs point to relatively stable rates of... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Faster nominal GDP growth helping to bring down debt ratios Nominal GDP growth in advanced economies has picked up over the past twelve months or so and is likely to remain fairly rapid during the coming two years. This should help households, firms and... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
