Industrial Metals Update Why are we so negative on the outlook for iron ore prices? High prices are spurring iron ore production at a time when we think demand will start to slow. As such, the recent rally in prices appears unsustainable. 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Dec.) The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus widened somewhat in December, and, as a result, was virtually unchanged over Q4 as a whole. Looking ahead, while surveys suggest that export growth may pick up from... 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Dec./Jan.) The latest data suggest that while the labour market has lost some momentum recently, it has held up fairly well in the face of Brexit uncertainty. However, real wage growth has started to become... 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will rising metals prices continue to boost EM equities? The latest rise in industrial metals prices has provided a welcome fillip to emerging market equities, which are now at their highest level for more than a year and a half. However, we think that this... 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank maintains dovishness for now While the Riksbank maintained a very dovish tone today, the strength of the Swedish economy and rising inflationary pressures mean that the Bank will soon have to change its stance. We expect the repo... 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile pauses easing cycle, but more rate cuts to come The decision by Chile’s central bank to keep interest rates on hold at 3.25% came as a bit of a surprise, but it only marks a pause in the easing cycle and we expect the policy rate to fall to 2.50%... 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) The sharper-than-expected decline in South African inflation – particularly core inflation – last month supports our view that the country’s monetary tightening cycle is now over. 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The rebound in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in February and the surge in the NAB measure of business confidence in January suggests that any lingering concerns over the outright fall in... 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: what to make of the pound’s recent rally? Weaker import demand and a pick-up in foreign investment have pushed the Egyptian pound up by 15% against the US dollar in the past couple of weeks, and we think the rally may have a little further to... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investors still in love with commodities The prices of most commodities have risen since the start of the year, boosted by optimism about demand and, in some cases, disrupted supply. A period of weakness in the US dollar has helped, but the... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen again stresses fiscal uncertainty Fed Chair Janet Yellen at least kept the possibility of a March rate hike alive in today’s Congressional testimony, but she offered no strong hints that such a move was actually coming and we still... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Fed likely to raise rates more than expected, but not before June 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Shrinking spare capacity no reason for complacency Japan’s GDP expanded by 1.0% in 2016, which is a touch faster than the economy’s sustainable rate. We forecast a similar increase in 2017 so spare capacity should continue to decline. Helped by the... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jan.) The annual rate of national house price inflation rose to a ten year high of 13.0% in January, up from 12.3%, in large part due to the speculative housing boom in Toronto. That boom will continue to... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Coping with higher inflation Growth in household spending is likely to slow over the next few years as inflation rises and dampens growth in real incomes. But loose credit conditions and relatively upbeat sentiment by past... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we worry about an election in Italy? Former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s decision to call a Democratic Party leadership contest reduces the chance of an early general election this summer. But an election could still take place later in... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
