Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA more concerned about investor lending In February’s Statement on Monetary Policy the Reserve Bank of Australia drew particular attention to the recent pick up in mortgage lending to investors. Given its concerns, if investor lending... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA plots near-perfect projections The new forecasts published in February’s Statement of Monetary Policy show that the RBA is largely expecting Australia’s slow growth and low underlying inflation problems to be solved over the next... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Deflationary threat far from over The Bank of Japan’s preferred measure of underlying inflation fell to a fresh low in December. While the weaker exchange rate and the recovery in commodity prices should result in a rebound in coming... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Will a stronger dollar prevent oil prices from rising further? Strong growth in demand for oil and a reduction in stocks should push prices higher over the rest of this year. However, rising US interest rates and a stronger dollar are likely to act as headwinds... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the ECB still do “whatever it takes”? Compared to 2012, when ECB President Draghi’s pledge to do “whatever it takes to preserve the euro” helped to bring the currency union back from the brink, the central bank’s ability to address euro... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jan.) The surge in Mexican inflation in January, to 4.7% y/y from 3.4% y/y in December, is largely the result of hikes in regulated fuel prices. Nonetheless, core inflation also continued to rise as a... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market sees tepid start to 2017 With house price growth cooling and buyer enquiries slowing, the housing market saw a fairly tepid start to 2017. Looking ahead, with prices already so high and mortgage regulations increasingly... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Dec. & 2016) South Africa’s overall mine production fell in 2016, with all the main metals seeing a drop in output. The PGM market appears finally to be tightening but we think that it will take some time to rise... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar’s credit boom comes to an end, lending growth to stay weak The recent sharp slowdown in private sector credit growth, coupled with falling real estate prices, has ignited concerns that Qatar’s credit boom of the past few years is quickly unravelling. For now... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Dec.) The sharper-than-expected 2.0% y/y fall in South African manufacturing production in December appears to be related primarily to working day effects. The underlying trend appears to be one of very... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jan.) January’s RICS survey reported that the number of homes coming onto the market fell again. But while the shortage of homes for sale will keep competition amongst buyers high, house prices are already... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to maintain dovish tone for now Recent economic data support our view that the Riksbank will raise interest rates this year. But given the recent appreciation of the krona, the Riksbank is likely to maintain a very dovish tone in... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI is right to turn less dovish Consumer price inflation is likely to have edged down in January as price discounting continued following demonetisation. But further ahead, price pressures are set to build. This was acknowledged by... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines to keep rates on hold throughout 2017 With the economy growing strongly but inflation under control, today’s decision by the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) to keep its main policy rate on hold at 3.0% came as no surprise. Looking... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q4) Norway’s economic recovery picked up in Q4, and surveys suggest that growth might edge up further in the near term. This should add to the upward pressure on the krone as oil prices rise this year. 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
