Business surveys point to a pick-up in activity at the beginning of the year, particularly in advanced economies. Indeed, the US economy and labour markets are approaching full capacity even though President Trump has not yet announced his planned fiscal stimulus. Growth in the euro-zone accelerated late last year and seems to have remained strong in January, and the UK has also continued to be resilient. Among emerging economies, China’s growth rate may be near a peak while several commodity producers are coming out of recession. For now, the outlook is fairly bright, provided that President Trump’s protectionist policies do not lead to renewed downturn in world trade.
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