Latin America Economics Weekly Peru & Mexico elections, (another) Argentine default? A victory for left-wing populist Pedro Castillo in Peru’s presidential election on Sunday would probably send local financial markets into a tailspin, but we doubt that investors would have much to... 4th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Will vaccine hesitancy prevent economies reopening? 28th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May) The drop in Mexico’s headline inflation to 5.8% y/y in the first half of May was driven by a sharp fall in energy inflation. While we expect that this trend will continue in the coming months, there... 24th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico statement points to a long pause The statement accompanying the Banxico Board’s decision to keep the policy rate at 4.00% suggests that policymakers’ concerns about inflation risks are growing, but it doesn’t change our view that... 14th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Mar.) The 0.7% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in March masked a more impressive 3.0% m/m increase in output in the key manufacturing sector, which recovered from disruptions caused by power... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) The surge in Mexico’s inflation to 6.1% y/y in April was mainly driven by unfavourable base effects linked to fuel prices and this impact should unwind over the coming months. We think that Banxico... 7th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1 Prov.) The modest 0.4% q/q rise in Mexico’s GDP in Q1 largely reflects the economy’s poor performance at the start of the year. The good news is that the recovery got back on track at the end of the quarter... 30th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.) The jump in Mexican inflation to 6.1% y/y in the first half of April was primarily linked to unfavourable base effects from low oil prices a year ago. We doubt that this will concern the central bank... 22nd April 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Feb.) The surprising 0.4% m/m rise in Mexico’s industrial production in February came despite the hit to manufacturing and utilities output from power outages. The industrial sector probably gained further... 9th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) The jump in Mexico’s headline inflation, to 4.7% y/y in March, was driven once again by higher fuel inflation. We think this trend has a bit further to run, but the central bank is likely to look... 8th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico begins a long pause The unanimous decision by Banxico’s Board to keep its policy rate at 4.00% is a clear signal that its easing cycle is done and dusted. While this indicates a cautious shift at the central bank, we... 26th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Mar.) The continued rise in Mexican inflation to 4.1% y/y over the first half of March, above the central bank’s 2-4% target range, will almost certainly put an end to Banxico’s easing cycle. We think that... 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jan.) The small 0.2% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in January masks a concerning 0.5% m/m fall in manufacturing output. The sector will have also fared poorly in February following the... 12th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further rise in Mexico’s headline inflation, to 3.8% y/y in February, was largely driven by higher fuel prices. This trend has further to run in the coming months which, alongside the recent... 9th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) The robust 2.0% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in October suggests that the economy started Q4 on a solid footing. But more timely indicators imply that the recovery struggled over the rest... 11th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov.) The sharp drop in Mexican inflation to 3.3% in November was largely driven by a drop in food and fuel prices, although underlying price pressures also remained soft. With inflation likely to settle... 9th December 2020 · 2 mins read
