Latin America Economics Focus The economic fallout from political risks in Lat Am The pandemic appears to be accelerating a political trend towards populism in Latin America. While there is a lot of uncertainty about how this might play out, it generally points towards loose fiscal... 5th August 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Delta variant and EM tourism troubles The rapid spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus adds to reasons to think that lacklustre economic recoveries lie in store for tourism-dependent economies in Africa, parts of the Middle East... 4th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Worrying signs from Castillo, regional re-opening The first steps from Peru’s newly-inaugurated President, Pedro Castillo, provide plenty of worrying signs for investors and suggest that local financial markets will remain on the back foot. Meanwhile... 30th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2 Prov.) The re-opening of Mexico’s economy caused GDP growth to accelerate to 1.5% q/q in Q2, and we suspect that this preliminary figure will be revised up. But with new virus cases rising sharply, the... 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Q3 looking brighter While the regional economic recovery stuttered in Q2, it appears to be gathering pace in Q3. New COVID-19 cases have dropped back, particularly in Chile and Uruguay suggesting that their rapid... 27th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s Delta despairs, Bolsonaro’s giveaways The third virus wave currently underway in Mexico, driven by the contagious Delta variant, will probably weigh on activity this quarter. But, for now, we don’t think that it will derail the economic... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul.) The small fall in Mexico’s headline inflation to 5.8% y/y in the first half of July was mainly due to fuel inflation dropping back, while the core rate remained stubbornly high at 4.6% y/y. The... 22nd July 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Not all doom and gloom Virus outbreaks are easing in much of Latin America which should support activity in the near term. And while vaccination coverage is still weak in most of the region, suggesting there is still a... 19th July 2021 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s tax reform, Chilean primary elections Proposed changes to Brazil’s income tax setup, which aim to cut corporate tax but only partly offset that with an end to exemptions and the introduction of a levy on dividends, add to the view that... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Shifting towards rate hikes Falling virus cases, strong economic recoveries and/or inflation worries prompted several more EM central banks – those of Czechia, Chile, Hungary and Mexico – to tighten monetary policy in the past... 15th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (May) The small 0.1% m/m gain in Mexico’s industrial production in May came despite a concerning 0.7% m/m drop in manufacturing production as shortages continued to hamper the auto sector. While there are... 12th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun.) The rise in Mexico’s core inflation to 4.6% y/y in June was largely driven by temporary factors which will gradually unwind. Nonetheless, given Banxico’s recent hawkish shift, and with headline and... 8th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fallen angel and a rising star Colombia’s second sovereign ratings downgrade to junk status was already largely priced in to local financial markets, but they could come under renewed pressure as public debt risks intensify over... 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Economic ‘immunity’ improving Latin America is once again the global epicentre of COVID-19 but, from an economic perspective, the region has built up significant immunity to the virus. Indeed, despite the surge in new virus cases... 29th June 2021 · 14 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We expect generally higher long-term EM bond yields We think investors may be overestimating how much monetary policy tightening is on the way in emerging markets (EMs), but still expect long-dated EM government bond yields to rise a bit from here. 29th June 2021 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico: surprise hike a sign of things to come The surprise 25bp rate hike by Mexico’s central bank (to 4.25%) suggests that its reaction function is less dovish that we had expected, as it is now reacting to quell high inflation. With the... 25th June 2021 · 3 mins read
