Inverted yield curves a poor signal for EM downturns

While yield curves have inverted in a number of emerging markets (and look likely to do so in several others in the coming months), they don’t have a good track record in predicting recessions in the emerging world. In most EMs, we think that growth will be softer this year than last, but outright contractions in GDP are unlikely. Emerging Markets Drop-In (7th April, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): Join us on Thursday for our next monthly Emerging Markets briefing where our economists will discuss how the Ukraine war’s spillovers are helping and hurting EMs, and the impact of global central bank tightening. Register here

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