Latin America Economics Update Banxico: decision to hold not the end of the easing cycle The communications accompanying the Mexican central bank’s decision to leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.25% suggest that there may still be scope for one more cut in the easing cycle. While it’s... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: revisiting the risks India’s banks entered the crisis in worse shape than other major EMs, although large state involvement in the financial sector means the government is unlikely to remain idle if loan losses start to... 3rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct.) Although Mexico’s headline inflation was above the central bank’s target, at 4.1%, in the first half of October, with price pressures likely to ease and activity still weak, we think that Banxico’s... 22nd October 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.) The 3.3% m/m rise in Mexico’s industrial production in August was largely driven by a delayed rebound in construction output. Manufacturing production only rose by 0.8%, and more timely indicators... 12th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) The stabilisation in Mexican inflation at 4.0%, after four successive monthly rises, should dampen hawkish sentiment at Mexico’s central bank. We think there is scope for at least one more 25bp rate... 8th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep.) The further rise in Mexican inflation, to 4.1% over the first half of September, was mainly driven by higher food and fuel prices. We suspect that the central bank will look past this and cut its... 24th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.) The marked slowdown in Mexico’s industrial production growth from 17.9% m/m in June to 6.9% m/m in July suggests the economic recovery was losing momentum at the start of Q3 – a trend which we expect... 11th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What to make of Mexico’s 2021 budget The frugal 2021 budget proposed by Mexico’s government underlines policymakers’ fixation about public debt risks and concerns about their credit rating. Meeting policymakers’ new and ambitious targets... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) Brazilian inflation remained well below the central bank’s target last month, at 2.4% y/y, confirming that price pressures are soft and supporting our view that the Selic rate will stay low for a long... 9th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Aug.) The rise in Mexican inflation to 4.0% in the first half of August, the upper end of Banxico’s target range, will probably prompt the central bank to slow the pace of its easing cycle. But with... 24th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Weaker Mexican inflation to drive more Banxico cuts Headline inflation in Mexico looks set to fall towards 3% over the coming months as both food and core inflation soften. We think that will give Banxico scope to cut its policy rate by an additional... 18th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What Mexico’s current account means for the peso We expect that Mexico’s current account deficit will narrow, and could even turn to a small surplus, over the rest of the year as a strong goods surplus outweighs weaker remittance inflows. That... 13th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.) The solid 17.9% m/m rebound in Mexican industrial production in June was largely driven by the reopening of auto factories. While production appears to have strengthened in July, further gains will... 11th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 2.3% y/y in July is unlikely to worry the central bank and, with the economy still very weak, we expect the Selic rate to stay at its current historic low through... 7th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2 Prov.) The 17.3% q/q slump in Mexico’s GDP in Q2 is likely to be one of the largest peak-to-trough falls in the emerging world. With the country still battling with its coronavirus outbreak, and the US... 30th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul.) We don’t think that the further rise in Mexican inflation to 3.6% y/y in the first half of July will be a major cause for concern for the central bank. Policymakers are likely to focus on the... 23rd July 2020 · 2 mins read
