Latin America Economics Update Is Mexico sleepwalking into a crisis? Mexico’s economy is likely to suffer a similar fall in output this year as it did during the Tequila Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis. Despite its reticence, the government will ultimately have... 25th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Mar.) Despite Mexican inflation remaining above target in early March, we think that Banxico will follow up its emergency 50bp rate cut last week with around 200bp of further easing in the coming quarters. 24th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are we facing a re-run of the 2014-16 oil price crash? The recent oil price shock has invoked comparisons with 2014-16, when prices fell to similarly low levels and large EMs – notably Brazil and Russia – entered crises. But this time around, we think... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) Given rising inflation and the sharp fall in the peso, we no longer think that the Bank of Mexico will cut its key rate this month in line with the Fed. Policymakers will probably leave rates on hold. 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Coronavirus to trigger more widespread EM rate cuts The continued spread of the coronavirus and the Fed’s emergency rate cut will result in more aggressive loosening in EMs than we previously envisaged. We expect central banks in much of Emerging Asia... 4th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb.) Stronger headline inflation in early February was mostly due to food prices; core inflation remained stable. Even so, we think that the persistence of above-target inflation will limit policymakers to... 24th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) Mexico’s industrial sectors weakened again in December, capping a poor year and creating a weak starting point for 2020. The available surveys suggest that conditions remained difficult more recently. 11th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico CPI (Jan.) The rise in Mexican inflation from 2.8% y/y in December to 3.2% y/y in January supports our view that, while the central bank will cut interest rates further, the easing cycle won’t go as far as... 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Flat again Mexico dodged another technical recession in Q4, we think that the weakness seen in the later months of last year will persist into 2020, causing growth to fall far below consensus expectations. 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan.) The above-target Brazilian inflation reading for the middle of January reduces the chance of an interest rate cut next month. Mexican inflation also rose, supporting our expectation of a short easing... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Dec.) & Mexico Ind. Production (Nov.) Strong Brazilian inflation – which jumped to 4.3% y/y last month – and signs that the economy is on a firmer footing, suggest that the further interest rate cuts some still expect in early 2020 won’t... 10th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico CPI (Dec.) & Brazil Ind. Production (Nov.) Mexican inflation eased again in December, supporting our view that policymakers will continue to cut rates this year. Elsewhere, the larger-than-expected 1.2% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Dec.) The fall in Mexican inflation to 2.6% y/y in the first two weeks of December, from 3.0% in the full month of November, will pave the way for Banxico to continue its easing cycle in the coming months... 23rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) The fall in Mexican manufacturing output in October was largely due to the GM strike, but even if this were excluded the latest figures show weakness across key industrial sectors. This strengthens... 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov.) Mexican inflation remained at a three-year low of 3.0% y/y in November, which strengthens our view that policymakers will cut their key rate from 7.50% to 7.25% next week. 9th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Growth in Mexico: Digging into the details Revised GDP figures have, again, shown Mexico as one of the worst-performing large EMs. But a closer look at the data underlines the huge variation within the country, which includes both pockets of... 27th November 2019 · 2 mins read
