Global Economics Update Mexico This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Mexico’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Feb.) The decent 0.3% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in February suggests that the sector made a small positive contribution to growth in Q1, having exerted a drag of about 0.3%-pts in Q4. This... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) The small rise in Mexican inflation last month, to 4.0% y/y, is likely to keep Banxico hawkish in the very near term. But the headline rate should resume its decline in H2, paving the way for interest... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican oil production likely to fall further The best that Mexico’s state-owned oil company, Pemex, can hope for in the coming years is a slower pace of decline in crude production. Many of its shallow oil fields are maturing and the government... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Mar.) Mexican inflation remained above target, at 4.0% y/y, in the first half of March and will probably stay around this rate in Q2. But we expect that the headline rate will decline during the second half... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCRA measures no silver bullet, team Amlo discord Measures announced by Argentina’s central bank last night appear to have supported the peso today, but the currency will remain vulnerable to large falls, particularly as October’s presidential... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jan.) The stronger-than-expected expansion in Mexican industrial production in January, of 0.6% m/m, is an early sign that the huge drag the sector exerted on Q4 GDP won’t be repeated in Q1. We still hold... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of Amlo’s first 100 days Sunday marks Andrés Manuel López’s Obrador’s (Amlo’s) first 100 days as Mexico’s president, and some of his unorthodox policies appear to have resulted in a 50-60bp risk premium on sovereign debt... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further large fall in Mexican inflation, from 4.4% y/y in January to 3.9% y/y in February, combined with another dip in core inflation, strengthens the case for rate cuts later this year. We are... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico’s core inflation concerns overdone The Mexican central bank’s recently released Q1 Inflation Report reiterated concerns about sticky core inflation. But we think these worries are overdone, and core inflation should fall back in the... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s pensions, new BCB governor, Mexican bonds Noises from Brazilian lawmakers this week hinted that parts of the government’s pension reform plan could be diluted. But so far, the core components of the bill do not appear to have come up against... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Explaining the weakness in Mexican industry The slump in Mexican industry late last year largely reflects domestic problems, particularly in the mining sector. But with the US economy now coming off the boil, the external environment will be an... 25th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb.) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of February, to 3.9% y/y, brings the headline rate back into the central bank’s 2-4% target range for the first time in almost two... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Unpacking the Pemex problem The Mexican government’s bailout for Pemex last week is unlikely to solve the company’s fundamental issues, which stem from an extremely heavy tax burden and chronically low productivity. In the... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) The surprise contraction in Mexican industrial production in December means that the sector was weaker over Q4 as a whole than we (and probably the statistics office) thought. As a result, there’s a... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Guedes’ ambitious pension bill, Banxico statements Details of Brazilian Finance Minister Paulo Guedes’ pension reform unveiled this week are impressive, but political realities could yet scupper these plans. Elsewhere, despite the hawkish statement... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
