Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s Delta despairs, Bolsonaro’s giveaways The third virus wave currently underway in Mexico, driven by the contagious Delta variant, will probably weigh on activity this quarter. But, for now, we don’t think that it will derail the economic... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul.) The small fall in Mexico’s headline inflation to 5.8% y/y in the first half of July was mainly due to fuel inflation dropping back, while the core rate remained stubbornly high at 4.6% y/y. The... 22nd July 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Not all doom and gloom Virus outbreaks are easing in much of Latin America which should support activity in the near term. And while vaccination coverage is still weak in most of the region, suggesting there is still a... 19th July 2021 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s tax reform, Chilean primary elections Proposed changes to Brazil’s income tax setup, which aim to cut corporate tax but only partly offset that with an end to exemptions and the introduction of a levy on dividends, add to the view that... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Shifting towards rate hikes Falling virus cases, strong economic recoveries and/or inflation worries prompted several more EM central banks – those of Czechia, Chile, Hungary and Mexico – to tighten monetary policy in the past... 15th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (May) The small 0.1% m/m gain in Mexico’s industrial production in May came despite a concerning 0.7% m/m drop in manufacturing production as shortages continued to hamper the auto sector. While there are... 12th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun.) The rise in Mexico’s core inflation to 4.6% y/y in June was largely driven by temporary factors which will gradually unwind. Nonetheless, given Banxico’s recent hawkish shift, and with headline and... 8th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fallen angel and a rising star Colombia’s second sovereign ratings downgrade to junk status was already largely priced in to local financial markets, but they could come under renewed pressure as public debt risks intensify over... 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Economic ‘immunity’ improving Latin America is once again the global epicentre of COVID-19 but, from an economic perspective, the region has built up significant immunity to the virus. Indeed, despite the surge in new virus cases... 29th June 2021 · 14 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We expect generally higher long-term EM bond yields We think investors may be overestimating how much monetary policy tightening is on the way in emerging markets (EMs), but still expect long-dated EM government bond yields to rise a bit from here. 29th June 2021 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico: surprise hike a sign of things to come The surprise 25bp rate hike by Mexico’s central bank (to 4.25%) suggests that its reaction function is less dovish that we had expected, as it is now reacting to quell high inflation. With the... 25th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun.) The strength of the Mexican headline and core inflation readings in the first half of June is likely to prompt a more cautious approach by Banxico at its meeting later today. Even so, we suspect that... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A deep dive into Mexican inflation Headline Mexican inflation has now peaked and will drop back within Banxico’s 2-4% target range as the earlier spike in fuel inflation unwinds. In contrast, we expect that core inflation will continue... 21st June 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.) The surprise drop in Mexican industrial production in April may partly be payback for a strong March. And early indicators suggest that industrial activity picked up in May. Moreover, with services... 11th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) The rise in Mexican core inflation to its highest rate in over three years in May, at 4.4%, appears mainly to be related to temporary factors. Policymakers at the central bank will probably continue... 9th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru & Mexico elections, (another) Argentine default? A victory for left-wing populist Pedro Castillo in Peru’s presidential election on Sunday would probably send local financial markets into a tailspin, but we doubt that investors would have much to... 4th June 2021 · 6 mins read
