Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s government sticking to fiscal discipline The 2020 budget presented by Mexico’s finance ministry at the weekend suggests that there will be a tilt towards providing modest stimulus to the struggling economy. But the big picture is that the... 9th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) The sharp drop in Mexican inflation from 3.8% y/y in July to 3.2% y/y in August is likely to be followed by further falls over the rest of the year. That should pave the way for more monetary easing... 9th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Aug.) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month, to 3.3% y/y, strengthens the case for Banxico to follow up this month’s 25bp interest rate cut with further... 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.) The stronger-than-expected increase in Mexican industrial production in June, of 1.1% m/m, should provide a strong carryover for Q3. But with the economy still very weak, we remain comfortable with... 9th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) The further fall in Mexican inflation in July, to 3.8% y/y, keeps an interest rate cut at next week’s policy meeting on the table. It will be a close call, but on balance we think the central bank... 8th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The spiralling trade war and what it means for EMs The latest phase of the trade war is likely to have a relatively limited direct impact on EM exports. But with the US and Chinese policymakers upping the ante, the indirect effects via a hit to... 6th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2, Prov.) Preliminary GDP data suggesting that Mexico escaped a technical recession by the skin of its teeth in Q2 don’t change the bigger picture that the economy remains very weak. This supports our non... 31st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul.) The further fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month, to 3.8% y/y, makes an interest rate cut at the central bank’s next policy meeting on 15th August increasingly likely. 24th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (May) The much larger-than-expected drop in Mexican industrial production, of 2.1% m/m, reinforces our downbeat view on the economy, and is likely to push the central bank towards cutting interest rates at... 12th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun.) The large drop in Mexican inflation, from 4.3% y/y in May to 3.9% y/y in June, is likely to be followed by another sizeable fall this month. That should see Banxico inch further towards interest rate... 9th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected expansion in Mexican industrial production in April, of 1.5% m/m, suggests that, after a disappointing Q1, GDP growth will recover in Q2. 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & tariffs, Brazil’s pension reform, Chilean rates Mexico has yet to strike a deal with the US to prevent tariffs being imposed on Monday, but one crumb of comfort is that (so far at least) financial conditions haven’t tightened significantly... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) The small decline in Mexican inflation, to 4.3% y/y in May, confirms that the headline rate has passed its peak. Even so, concerns about the prospect of US tariffs, as well as the recent credit rating... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Mexico tariffs pose significant risk for the autos sector The impact on prices of a 25% tariff on Mexican imports would be partly offset by a sharp drop in the peso. But the potential disruption to the motor vehicle industry, which relies on a continued flow... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico and the impact of Trump’s tariffs There’s plenty of uncertainty about whether the tariffs on all US imports from Mexico announced last night by President Trump will be introduced and rise to the full 25%. The impact of the starting... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Revising down our Mexico growth forecast The carryover from the weak Q1 Mexican GDP growth figure has prompted us to revise down our growth forecast for this year to 1.8% (our 2020 forecast is unchanged at 1.5%). Slow growth increases the... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
