Latin America Economics Update FX sell-off to trigger hike in Mexico, but Brazil to hold The latest sell-off in the Mexican peso tips the balance towards policy being tightened at Thursday’s central bank meeting. We’re changing our forecast and now expect a 50bp hike in the policy... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Assessing Lat Am’s vulnerability to US protectionism Mexico, as well as several smaller countries in Central America (including Nicaragua, Honduras and Costa Rica), are most vulnerable to a general escalation in US protectionism. But individual sectors... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.) The second consecutive monthly decline in Mexican industrial production in April was disappointing, but the data are volatile and must be viewed in the context of an economy that is performing well on... 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) Mexican inflation continued to fall in May, and while the markets have responded to the recent drop in the peso against the dollar by pricing in a 25bp hike at this month’s policy meeting, we’re... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico tariffs raise tensions The direct effect of Mexico’s new tariffs on imports from the US will be moderate. But the move will make the process of renegotiating Nafta even more difficult. The peso has fallen sharply in... 5th June 2018 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s better-than-expected industrial production data from Mexico, which were the result of a surge in manufacturing output, support our view that GDP growth this year will be stronger than most... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) The further drop in Mexican inflation last month reinforces our view that the tightening cycle is over and that the next move in interest rates will be down. In contrast, the markets have responded to... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Time to turn bullish on Mexico? The outlook for Mexico’s economy is, despite worries over Nafta renegotiations and an Andrés Manuel López Obrador presidency, brighter than many seem to think. We’ve revised up our forecasts and now... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1, Prov.) The stronger-than-expected 1.1% q/q expansion in Mexican GDP in Q1 partly reflects the unwinding of some earthquake-related effects, but there are also signs of a broader rebound in activity. Today’s... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.) The larger-than-expected drop in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month reinforces our view that the next move in interest rates will be down. That said, the recent slide in the peso – if... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch – AMLO fears recede Left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) appears to have made headway in allaying investors’ fears of a dramatic shift in policy if he wins Mexico’s presidential election in July. But... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Election fallout likely to be greatest in Brazil, not Mexico There are still plenty of twists and turns that have yet to play out ahead of elections in Mexico and Brazil later this year. But developments over the past month mean we are becoming less concerned... 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Feb.) Mexican industrial production returned to growth in February, and the data showed that the sector is continuing to benefit from a jump in construction and utilities output in the aftermath of... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) The fall in Mexican inflation in March was broad-based, and we expect it to continue easing over the course of this year. The data support our view – which the markets have now come round to – that... 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Does AMLO’s energy self-sufficiency plan make sense? Mexican presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO’s) goal to stop importing refined oil within three years might be a vote winner, but the large investment into domestic refining... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Mar.) The further fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of March was broad-based, and we expect it to continue easing over the course of this year. The data support our view – which the markets appear... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
