Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.) The 0.3% m/m fall in Mexican industrial production in April underlines the fact that, even if the decent growth in the manufacturing sector continues, persistent weakness in mining output means... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (May) Mexican inflation rose further above target in May and, while we expect another 25bp hike in the central bank’s policy interest rate later this month, both inflation and interest rates are probably... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico survey data rebound to pre-Trump levels Survey data from Mexico strengthened markedly in May and are now generally back to their levels prior to Trump’s election victory in November. Elsewhere, the latest survey data from Brazil continue to... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May) Mexican inflation continued its upward trend in the first half of May, hitting an eight-year high of 6.2% y/y, but the recent stability of the peso means it probably doesn’t have much further to rise. 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook On the road to recovery The outlook for Latin America is improving and we expect economic growth to accelerate over the next year. The latest political crisis to engulf Brazil has cast fresh doubts over the outlook there but... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Notes from the ground We have just returned from a week of meetings with investors and local contacts in Mexico City. In this Update we summarise four quick takeaways. 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Mar.) Mexican industrial production continued to broadly stagnate in March, but this is still far from the collapse that the survey data are pointing to. Indeed, if anything, today’s data suggest that the... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) Mexican inflation continued to rise in April and, with inflation expectations starting to tick up again, we think the central bank is likely to opt for another 25bp hike in its policy interest rate... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil and Mexico survey data continue to diverge April’s survey data point to a continued improvement in Brazil’s economy at the start of Q2, while in Mexico they suggest conditions have deteriorated further. But with provisional Q1 GDP data for... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1, Prov.) First quarter GDP data from Mexico confirmed what we have long suspected – that the survey data have been overstating the weakness in the real economy. In fact, the economy grew at a reasonably... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.) & IGAE Act. (Feb.) Mexican inflation continued to rise in the first half of April, hitting a fresh seven-year high of 5.6% y/y. That being said, the stability of the peso over recent weeks means it’s probably close to... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s industrial production data from Mexico were soft by most standards, but there is still no sign of the outright collapse that has been suggested by the recent business surveys. Indeed, as... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican survey data overstating slowdown in the real economy The collapse in Mexico’s main business surveys and a number of confidence indices since President Trump’s election victory in November has been alarming, but it hasn’t yet been accompanied by a... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) Mexican inflation hit a fresh seven-year high of 5.4% y/y in March, up from 4.9% y/y in February, but the recent rebound in the peso means that it is probably now close to peaking. Much still depends... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update March survey data strike more positive tone in Brazil and Mexico The latest batch of survey data suggests that Brazil’s economy continued to recover in March, while in Mexico the recent slump in the IMEF business surveys is starting to reverse. 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update US appears to soften stance on NAFTA, but long road ahead A leaked copy of a notification letter from the Trump administration to Congress suggests that its plans for renegotiating NAFTA are more consistent with the idea of creating a “North American... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
