Latin America Economics Update What would the collapse of Nafta mean for Mexico? The immediate effects of a collapse in Nafta on Mexico’s economy might be smaller than many expect – we would probably nudge down our GDP forecast for 2018 by something like 0.5-1.0%-pts. The effects... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.) The 0.3% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in August is encouraging but the data predate the earthquakes that hit the country last month. The disruption caused by the quakes mean that the... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: mining downturn should soon bottom out We estimate that a fall in mining output shaved about 0.4%-pts off annual GDP growth in Mexico in Q3. Mining output should stabilise over the coming year, but we doubt that reforms to the sector will... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) The drop in Mexican inflation last month is likely to be the start of a rapid downwards trend and we expect the headline rate to fall back into the central bank’s target range by the middle of next... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Recovery in Latin America steps up a gear The past month has brought further evidence that the recovery in Latin America is picking up pace. Our GDP Tracker suggests that regional growth is now running at a three-year high of 3% y/y. The... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.) Mexico’s industrial sector got off to a weak start in Q3, with output contracting by 1.0% m/m in July. And there is a good chance that it will act as a drag on GDP growth over the quarter as whole... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) Mexican inflation rose to an 18-year high in August, but the latest increase was driven by another jump in food inflation, rather than a rise in broader price pressures. As such, it is unlikely to... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil’s political crisis puts back pension reform The past month has brought some signs that the continuing political crisis in Brazil is starting to weigh on the more ambitious elements of the government’s reform programme. While President Temer’s... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Aug.) Mexican inflation continued to rise in the first half of August, but this was largely the result of another jump in food inflation. As such, it’s unlikely to change the central bank’s view that... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Recovery to strengthen over coming year After a torrid couple of years, the economies of Latin America have turned a corner and we expect growth to strengthen over the rest of 2017 and into 2018. Inflation has fallen in most countries and... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.) Mexican industrial production grew by a below-consensus 0.1% m/m in June, confirming that the sector broadly stagnated over Q2 as a whole. As such, it shouldn’t trigger any major revisions to the... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update The renegotiation of Nafta: a primer Talks to renegotiate Nafta are set to begin on 16th August and look increasingly unlikely to result in major changes that would disrupt Mexico-US trade. Even so, there are still a number of potential... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) Mexican inflation nudged up to a fresh eight-year high in July, but this is unlikely to be enough to change the central bank’s view that its tightening cycle is over. As such, we continue to expect... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2, Prov.) Mexico’s economy posted another quarter of solid growth in Q2 and, while the activity is likely to cool in the second half of this year, we remain comfortable with our above-consensus forecast for GDP... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Regional inflation hits seven-year low Inflation has continued to fall across Latin America – our measure of regional inflation (excluding Argentina and Venezuela) dropped below 4% y/y for the first time since 2010 last month. This is due... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul.) & IGAE (May) Mexican inflation remained unchanged in the first half of July which, combined with the latest activity data suggesting that GDP growth slowed in Q2, reinforces our view that Banxico’s tightening... 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
