Latin America Economics Update Argentina: is Macri already a busted flush? The Argentine government’s recent upward revision to its 2017 budget deficit forecast has added to concerns that President Macri’s reform agenda is already starting to slow after less than a year in... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.) The 0.4% m/m drop in Mexican industrial production in August is disappointing coming on the back of three consecutive increases. Nonetheless, it largely reflected another sharp fall in mining output... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) The increase in Mexican inflation in September, to 3.0% y/y from 2.7% y/y in August, means that headline CPI is now at the central bank’s target and leaves it on track to move above target over the... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico raises rates to shore up the peso, further hikes likely The 50bp hike in Mexican interest rates (to 4.75%) at Thursday’s meeting was aimed squarely at supporting the peso. We expect another half-point increase at December’s meeting, taking rates to 5.25%. 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican peso in the spotlight The sharp drop in the Mexican peso against the dollar this month, driven partly by Donald Trump’s surge in the US election polls, has increased the chances of an interest rate hike at Thursday’s MPC... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Trump, the US election and the implications for Latin America Donald Trump’s performance in last night’s first US presidential election debate doesn’t appear to have done himself any favours, but his election in November is still a real possibility. This would... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Sep.) The rise in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month, to 2.9% y/y from 2.7% y/y over August as a whole, alongside the sharp drop in the peso over the past couple of weeks, means that there is... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Food inflation to fall in Brazil and Colombia, but rise in Mexico Food inflation should ease over the coming months in Brazil and Colombia, which will help to bring down the headline inflation rates in both countries. By contrast, in Mexico, we expect the lagged... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.) The 1.0% y/y drop in Mexican industrial production in July will grab the headlines, but this figure was distorted by working day effects. And the fact that output rose in seasonally-adjusted m/m terms... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: big budget cuts to weigh on 2017 growth, mining sector Substantial cuts to government spending announced by Mexico’s new finance minister José Meade in the 2017 budget reinforce our view that GDP growth will be weaker than the consensus expects next year... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) The weaker-than-expected 2.7% y/y increase in Mexican consumer prices in August, coming alongside further government spending cuts expected to be announced in the 2017 budget later today, strengthens... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The fall in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI in August is disappointing, particularly coming on the back of consecutive increases in the previous two months. However, the decline was relatively modest and... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further rise in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month, to 2.8% y/y from 2.7% y/y over July as a whole, means that the headline rate is on course to breach the central bank’s 3% target... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2) The good news is that the final estimate of Mexican Q2 GDP showed that the economy contracted by less than previously thought. The bad news is that downward revisions to growth in the previous two... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s CA deficit narrows, but more work to do elsewhere The further narrowing of Brazil’s current account deficit in June has significantly reduced the vulnerability of the country’s financial markets to external shocks. Elsewhere, however, there is still... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.) Mexico’s manufacturing and construction sectors posted strong m/m gains in June, but a big drag from mining means that overall industrial production only rose by a modest 0.1% m/m. 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
