What would an Amlo presidency mean for Mexico?

A victory for left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) in Mexico’s presidential election on Sunday appears to be priced in to markets. But a strong showing for his Morena coalition in legislative elections on the same day could still push the peso lower and trigger further policy tightening by Banxico. A looser fiscal stance under Amlo may help to boost growth next year, but we are concerned that more populist and unpredictable policymaking will weigh on growth over the longer term.