Brazil’s growth boom has run out of road

The cyclical factors that drove Brazil’s strong post-pandemic growth have now been exhausted, and we think there will be a much sharper slowdown than most expect over the coming years. GDP growth is likely to average little more than 1.0% p.a. through 2027-28. While some forecasters have turned more optimistic on Brazil’s medium-term prospects (projecting growth of 2.2-2.5% a year), we think the rate of potential growth is still around 1.5-1.8%.

We'll be discussing Brazil’s upcoming election in an online Drop-In on Thursday, 24th September. Register here.