Latin America Economic Outlook Growth to return in 2017 After two years of falling output, Latin America’s economy finally looks set to return to growth next year. Brazil and Argentina should exit recessions, while the downturns in Colombia and Chile are... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) Mexico’s manufacturing PMI fell in November following the election of Donald Trump but the decline was very modest and doesn’t point to a renewed downturn in production over the coming months... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Tide turning against Temer While the eyes of the world have been focused on the fallout from the US election, domestic political risks have resurfaced in Brazil. The latest controversy surrounds allegations that President Temer... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Nov.) Mexican inflation continued to climb in the first half of November, rising to 3.3% y/y from 3.1% y/y over the whole of October. And, following the sharp depreciation of the peso over recent weeks, we... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No post-Trump overhaul in our forecasts While many analysts are scrambling to revise down their economic forecasts for Mexico and the rest of Latin America in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory, for now we see little reason to make... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tweaking – not slashing – our Mexico forecasts Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the US election has led to a rash of sizeable downgrades to growth forecasts for Mexico, including several predictions of a recession. But we think the impact over... 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico raises rates to shore up peso, further hikes likely The 50bp increase in Mexican interest rates (to 5.25%) at today’s meeting was aimed at supporting the peso in the aftermath of the US election and it’s clear that further hikes are on the cards. We... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What are President Trump’s options on NAFTA? The wholesale renegotiation of NAFTA that Donald Trump talked about on the campaign trail would require approval by Congress and seems unlikely to happen. But President Trump will have broad powers to... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico keeps its powder dry, but rate hikes still likely The rebound in the peso over the last few hours appears to have dissuaded Mexico’s central bank from raising interest rates at a press conference this morning. However, with the situation in markets... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How would Mexican policymakers respond to a Trump victory? If Donald Trump prevails in tomorrow’s US presidential election, our sense is that Mexican policymakers’ initial response would be to hike interest rates by 100-200bp at an emergency central bank... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Trump & the Mexican peso: how low can you go? The likely market sell-off in response to a victory for Donald Trump next week could push the Mexican peso to as low as 25/$. What happens to the peso beyond the initial sell-off would depend upon... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The small decline in Mexico’s manufacturing PMI in October suggests that the factory sector remains weak. And, with mining output still falling, industry as a whole is unlikely to be a major source of... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q3, Prov.) Mexico’s economy grew by an impressive 1.0% q/q in Q3, the strongest rate since 2014. However, with growth being driven largely by the services sector and monetary policy set to tighten further, such... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Lat Am central banks turning more dovish Central banks in several countries in Latin America are turning increasingly dovish. Policymakers in Brazil cut interest rates this month on the back of another drop in inflation and further (gradual)... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Oct.) The increase in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month, to 3.1% y/y from 3.0% y/y over the whole of September, was due largely to a rise in energy prices. While the recent rebound in the... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s star begins to fade Mexico’s faltering economy probably escaped recession in Q3 – but it’s a close call. Our GDP growth forecast for this year was already below consensus but we are nudging it down from 2.0% to 1.8%... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
