The Bolsonaro boost; Amlo, energy and populism

The growing optimism in Brazil’s markets about a likely victory for Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential election this Sunday is increasingly difficult to square with events on the ground. In Mexico, the populist tone on energy policy struck by president-elect Amlo and his party this week may be an early sign that they are moving away from a centrist position. We’re still upbeat on the near-term prospects for the economy, but a shift towards populism would worsen the outlook further out.