Latin America Chart Pack Brazil breathes sigh of relief as meat scandal subsides The scandal over Brazil’s meat sector, which at one point appeared to threaten the country’s economic recovery, seems to have faded just as quickly as it escalated. The crisis exploded following the... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Mar.) Mexican inflation rose to a fresh seven-year high of 5.3% y/y in the first half of March but the details of the data contained some signs that the upward pressure on prices is easing. Nonetheless, we... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico’s peso hedges unlikely to have a big impact The Mexican central bank’s new programme of auctioning currency hedges marks a significant departure from its previous FX intervention policy, but is currently small in scale. As such, we doubt it... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jan.) The increase in Mexican industrial production in January was modest, but the fact it grew at all stands in stark contrast to the sharp fall in the business surveys since President Trump has taken... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) Mexican inflation rose to a seven-year high of 4.9% y/y in February, from 4.7% y/y in January, and, despite the recent rally in the peso, we suspect this will be enough to convince the central bank to... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the latest business surveys The deterioration in Mexico’s IMEF survey since the start of this year looks alarming but there are reasons to believe that it is overstating the softness in the real economy. Meanwhile, the incoming... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: about that trade surplus with the US… Changes to US trade statistics that are apparently being considered by the Trump administration would double Mexico’s trade surplus with the US as reported by the US Census Bureau, from $60bn to... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Feb.) Mexican inflation was unchanged at 4.7% y/y in the first-half of February and, along with the rebound in the peso over the past month, this could convince the central bank to keep interest rate on... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weak survey data suggest soft start to 2017 The recent deterioration in survey data across most of Latin America suggests that the region’s economic recovery may have softened at the start of 2017. Following President Trump’s inauguration and a... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexico & NAFTA: what’s at stake? Mexico has more to lose than the US from the renegotiation of NAFTA, but there are a number of changes that could be made with little economic impact and the government does have some bargaining power... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) The small fall in Mexican industrial production in December confirms that the sector broadly stagnated over Q4 as a whole. And the early signs are that that this weakness has persisted in the early... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jan.) The surge in Mexican inflation in January, to 4.7% y/y from 3.4% y/y in December, is largely the result of hikes in regulated fuel prices. Nonetheless, core inflation also continued to rise as a... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: What to watch for signs of a sharp slowdown The plunge in Mexican consumer confidence to a record low in January has raised concerns that a much more severe economic slowdown than we currently expect is underway. But it remains to be seen if... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Remittance tax probably not Mexico’s biggest problem The public spat between Donald Trump and President Enrique Peña Nieto over who will pay for the proposed border wall has led to some speculation that the US could impose a tax on remittance flows to... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update The real question for Mexico is: why have Nafta gains been so small? According to President Trump, Mexico is “beating the US badly on trade” and a big part of the reason is Nafta. In truth, however, the real question is not why Mexico has benefited so much from Nafta... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How do Lat Am central banks set policy? Our Taylor rules suggest that central banks in Latin America attach most importance to the latest inflation rate and the current output gap when setting policy. Some central banks (notably Mexico)... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
