Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jan.) Mexican industrial production stagnated in m/m terms in January, but this was partly payback for a strong 1.0% m/m increase in December. The breakdown reveals that the disruption to industry from... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further drop in Mexican inflation in February was encouraging, and the breakdown contains signs of broad disinflation pressures – core inflation posted its biggest decline in over three years. The... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) Mexican industrial production returned to growth in December, on the back of a (delayed) rebound in construction activity following September’s earthquakes. However, the impact of the earthquakes is... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jan.) The sharp fall in Mexican inflation last month is likely to be the start of a downwards trend, and we expect headline inflation to fall back into the central bank’s target range by Q3. The consensus... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4, Prov.) The 1.0% q/q rebound in Mexican GDP in Q4 was larger than expected but needs to be viewed alongside the -0.3% q/q contraction in Q3. While a stronger US economy will provide a prop to growth this year... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico: navigating choppy waters… July’s elections and Nafta renegotiations make the uncertainties around the outlook for interest rates in Mexico unusually high. An election upset or the collapse of Nafta could result in interest... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in Mexican inflation to a fresh 18-year high of 6.8% y/y in December will probably lead to further calls for Banxico to raise rates again at its policy meeting on 9th February. While another... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q3, Prov.) The 0.2% q/q fall in Mexican GDP in Q3 was weaker than expected but the data are provisional and are perhaps more likely than usual to be revised given the disruption caused by the twin earthquakes... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct.) Data showing that Mexican inflation was unchanged in the first half of October compared to September as a whole, combined with the recent deprecation of the peso against the dollar, mean that... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How far might the Mexican peso fall if Nafta collapses? We think the Mexican peso could initially fall to as far as 23/$ in the event that Nafta collapses. What happens to the currency beyond the initial sell-off would depend upon several factors, most... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NAFTA withdrawal no longer out of the question The demise of the NAFTA agreement would have a modest negative impact on the US economy. But if a unilateral withdrawal by the Trump administration signalled the beginning of a broader lurch toward... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would the collapse of Nafta mean for Mexico? The immediate effects of a collapse in Nafta on Mexico’s economy might be smaller than many expect – we would probably nudge down our GDP forecast for 2018 by something like 0.5-1.0%-pts. The effects... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.) The 0.3% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in August is encouraging but the data predate the earthquakes that hit the country last month. The disruption caused by the quakes mean that the... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: mining downturn should soon bottom out We estimate that a fall in mining output shaved about 0.4%-pts off annual GDP growth in Mexico in Q3. Mining output should stabilise over the coming year, but we doubt that reforms to the sector will... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) The drop in Mexican inflation last month is likely to be the start of a rapid downwards trend and we expect the headline rate to fall back into the central bank’s target range by the middle of next... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Recovery in Latin America steps up a gear The past month has brought further evidence that the recovery in Latin America is picking up pace. Our GDP Tracker suggests that regional growth is now running at a three-year high of 3% y/y. The... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
