Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.) The larger-than-expected 0.2% m/m gain in Mexican industrial production in July is an early sign that the slump in the sector in Q2 will reverse in Q3. This supports our view that Mexican GDP growth... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Aug.) The third consecutive monthly rise in Mexican inflation was driven by higher energy inflation, and is unlikely to spook Banxico. Accordingly, assuming the peso holds up reasonably well between now and... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four quick points on the trade war While the threat of a US-Mexico trade war may have diminished, the trade conflict between the US and China looks set to escalate. And overall, protectionist rhetoric and policies are likely to... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update US trade deal a win for Mexico The preliminary bilateral trade deal between Mexico and the US, announced yesterday, is a far cry from the radical overhaul of the two countries’ trading relationship that many had feared. Tighter... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil & Mexico inflation to head in opposite directions Inflation in both Brazil and Mexico has been a bit higher than we had anticipated over the past few weeks, but we think the broad trend over the next year or so will be up in Brazil, and down in... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.) The stronger-than-expected Mexican industrial production figure for June was driven in part by a surge in utilities output, which is unlikely to be sustained. Even so, we still think that industrial... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) The second consecutive monthly rise in Mexican inflation was driven largely by higher energy inflation, and is unlikely to spook Banxico. There’s a long way to go until the next policy meeting, but... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2, Prov.) The surprise contraction in Mexican GDP in Q2 was driven in part by a drop in agricultural production, which tends to be volatile, but growth in the services sector was also surprisingly weak. We... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s inflation expectations becoming unanchored There is growing evidence that, despite Banxico’s best efforts, inflation expectations in Mexico are becoming unanchored. One consequence is that the monetary policy debate over the coming months will... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (May) The disappointingly weak Mexican industrial production data for May suggest that the sector probably made a small negative contribution to overall GDP growth in Q2. 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun.) The small rise in Mexican inflation, to 4.6% y/y last month, from 4.5% y/y in June, was due almost entirely to a rise in energy inflation, while core inflation fell to an 18-month low. The next... 9th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Financial conditions tighten in key economies Argentina’s currency crisis has caused financial conditions there to tighten sharply in the past few months, and this is one reason why we expect the economy to fall into recession in the coming... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: what to watch after Amlo’s resounding victory The conciliatory tone of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (Amlo’s) speeches following his convincing presidential election victory has been relatively well-received by the markets. But it’s worth... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB plays down rate hikes, Mexico goes to the polls A victory for left-wing populist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (Amlo) in Mexico’s presidential vote this weekend looks priced in. The market reaction is likely to take its cue from the performance of... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What would an Amlo presidency mean for Mexico? A victory for left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) in Mexico’s presidential election on Sunday appears to be priced in to markets. But a strong showing for his Morena coalition in... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks take centre stage The Mexican central bank’s decision to raise interest rates this week underscored its sensitivity to currency weakness and, while our base case is that this move will be a one-off, further falls in... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
