Latin America Economics Update Policymakers step in to defend currencies Policymakers in Mexico and Colombia this month responded to the sharp falls in their currencies by hiking interest rates and stepping up intervention in foreign exchange markets. These moves appear to... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further jump in Mexican inflation in the first half of February, to 2.9% y/y, from 2.5% y/y over January as a whole, was due to a rise in food inflation, which is typically volatile and should... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4) The final estimate of Q4 Mexican GDP confirmed that the economy grew by 2.5% y/y, but revisions to the back series show that the slowdown at the end of last year was sharper than previously thought... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico responds to market turmoil Expectations of lower inflation have probably played only a minor role in the fall in Treasury inflation compensation – the gap between the nominal yields of conventional Treasuries and the real... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) Stagnant industrial output at the end of last year means that the sector probably added a meagre 0.1%-pt to overall GDP growth in Q4. Industry may remain under pressure in the near term, but we still... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jan.) The jump in Mexican inflation in January, to 2.6% y/y, from 2.1% y/y in December, was due to a sharp rise in food inflation, which is likely to have been driven in part by a weaker currency. But with... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The small fall in Mexico’s headline manufacturing PMI is a disappointing sign that the factory sector remained relatively weak at the start of 2016. However, we still expect conditions to improve over... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4, Prov.) The stronger-than-expected 2.5% y/y rise in Mexican GDP in Q4 confirmed that economic growth remained solid – if unspectacular – in the fourth quarter. We expect the economy to kick on this year as... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Jan.) The jump in Mexican inflation in the first half of January, to 2.5% y/y (from 2.1% y/y in December) was due largely to unfavourable base effects and, as a result, is unlikely to change the outlook for... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Nov.) The weaker-than-expected Mexican industrial production growth figure for November is not something to be overly concerned about – the slowdown was due entirely to a sharp drop in construction output... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further decline in Mexican inflation in December, to 2.1% y/y, underscores the lack of price pressures in the economy. Against this backdrop, we expect only modest monetary tightening in 2016... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) The rise in Brazil’s headline manufacturing PMI in December provides a rare piece of good news for a country in the grip of both a deep recession and an escalating political crisis. Elsewhere, Mexico... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico & Chile hike, but tightening cycles to be gradual Last night’s decision by central banks in Mexico and Chile to hike interest rates suggests that the actions of the US Fed still hold sway with policymakers in Latin America. Nonetheless, we suspect... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) The sharp slowdown in Mexican industrial production growth in October, to 0.5% y/y, was disappointing, but we don’t think this is the start of a renewed downturn in the sector. The data from month to... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov.) The bigger-than-expected drop in Mexican inflation in November underscores the lack of price pressures in the economy. Against this backdrop, although it will be a close call, we are sticking with our... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The further fall in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI in November, to a fresh five-year low of 43.8, adds to evidence that the economy is yet to bottom out. The data are broadly consistent with industrial... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
