Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Nascent export rebound has further to run EM goods exports remained weak in May, but partial June data point to a fledgling recovery. This is likely to continue in the coming months, although a number of factors look set to constrain the... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Industry weighing on Mexico’s economy The struggles in Mexico’s industrial sector suggests that GDP fell by around 20% q/q in Q2. And the weak prospects for the sector will dampen Mexico’s economic recovery over the coming quarters. 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (May) The further fall in Mexico’s industrial production in May reinforces our view that GDP suffered a double-digit slump in Q2 (in q/q terms), and suggests that the recovery is lagging those in the rest... 10th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun.) The further rise in Mexican inflation to 3.3% y/y in June, from 2.8% y/y in May, was largely driven by higher fuel prices. We think this trend has a bit further to run, although it is unlikely to... 9th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun.) The rise in Mexican headline inflation to 3.2% y/y in the middle of June will keep policymakers in a cautious mood – something that’s likely to be reflected in the tone of the statement from tomorrow... 24th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.) The 25.1% m/m collapse in Mexico’s industrial production in April suggests that Mexico’s economy suffered a hefty blow in Q2. Although this may mark the bottom for industry, it will add pressure for... 11th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May) The larger-than-expected rise in Mexican inflation in the first half of May, to 2.8% (from 2.1% in April), may prompt the central bank to slow the pace of easing (or even pause its cycle) at next... 22nd May 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Mar.) The 5% y/y drop in Mexican industrial production in March is largely old news, but the breakdown of the headline figure was more noteworthy and suggests that the manufacturing sector has been hit... 12th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) The large fall in Mexican inflation to just 2.2% y/y in April (from 3.2% y/y in March) should embolden the central bank to step up the easing cycle when it meets later this month. We’ve pencilled in a... 7th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil and Mexico set for double-digit contractions The collapse in the confidence surveys in Brazil and Mexico last month point to a contraction in activity that exceeds that experienced in each economy during the Global Financial Crisis. And with... 5th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1, Prov.) The 1.6% q/q drop in Mexico’s GDP in Q1 was slightly better than many had expected, but the outturn in Q2 is likely to be much worse. We expect an 8% fall in GDP over this year as a whole – one of the... 30th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.) The collapse in Mexican inflation to just 2.1% y/y in the first half of April will give Banxico more space to support the economy. It looks increasingly likely that the central bank will follow up... 23rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the impact of low oil prices on Mexico The plunge in oil prices is yet another drag on Mexico’s freefalling economy, and may hasten a move by Pemex to restructure its external debts. The government’s lacklustre response to the economic... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Pemex default risks rising Our oil price forecasts are consistent with a 30% drop in Pemex’s revenues this year, which suggests the firm will need additional state support to service its large debts. However, with the... 16th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation in March, to 3.3% y/y, should ease near-term concerns at the central bank about the impact of the fall in the peso on prices. More importantly, with... 7th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What do the latest surveys tell us? Last month’s survey data for Brazil and Mexico don’t capture most of the impact of the ramping up of social distancing measures in the second half of March, but they still suggest that both economies... 2nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
