Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.) Inflation ticked up in the first half of November in both Brazil and Mexico, but we doubt that this will be enough to dissuade policymakers from cutting their key interest rates in December. We expect... 22nd November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Cuts continue, but markets have gone too far After loosening policy again yesterday, Mexican policymakers will probably cut rates by another 75bp over the coming six months. Given that the US loosening cycle now seems to be at an end, market... 15th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Sep.) Mexican industrial production fell again in September, and problems in the auto sector probably caused conditions to deteriorate further in October. This adds to the pressure for policymakers to cut... 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico CPI (Oct.) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 2.5% in October, one of the lowest rates on record, makes another 50bp cut in the Selic rate at December’s Copom meeting almost certain. That said, policymakers have... 7th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q3, Prov.) The meagre 0.1% q/q rise in Mexican GDP in Q3 makes another interest rate cut at the next central bank meeting in November almost certain. The data release increases the likelihood of a larger 50bp... 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct.) Mexican inflation remained at 3.0% y/y October, which supports our view that policymakers will cut their key rate from 7.75% to 7.25% by the end of this year. 24th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.) Mexican industrial production rose by a surprisingly brisk 0.8% m/m in August, but with the key manufacturing sector facing a slowdown, we expect that conditions for industry as a whole will remain... 11th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) Mexican inflation eased to a three-year low of 3.0% y/y in September, which strengthens our view that policymakers will cut their key rate from 7.75% to 7.25% by the end of the year. 9th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Dovish votes suggest steeper easing cycle Mexican policymakers cut their policy rate from 8.00% to 7.75% yesterday, and we think that they will continue to loosen policy over the coming quarters. We now expect a 25bp cut in both of the... 27th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep.) Mexican inflation eased very slightly over the first half of September, supporting our view that policymakers at the central bank will cut their key rate from 8.00% to 7.75% on Thursday. 24th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.) The 0.4% m/m fall in Mexican industrial production in July adds to our view that economic activity remains subdued and Banxico will cut interest rates later this month. 11th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s government sticking to fiscal discipline The 2020 budget presented by Mexico’s finance ministry at the weekend suggests that there will be a tilt towards providing modest stimulus to the struggling economy. But the big picture is that the... 9th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) The sharp drop in Mexican inflation from 3.8% y/y in July to 3.2% y/y in August is likely to be followed by further falls over the rest of the year. That should pave the way for more monetary easing... 9th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Aug.) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month, to 3.3% y/y, strengthens the case for Banxico to follow up this month’s 25bp interest rate cut with further... 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.) The stronger-than-expected increase in Mexican industrial production in June, of 1.1% m/m, should provide a strong carryover for Q3. But with the economy still very weak, we remain comfortable with... 9th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) The further fall in Mexican inflation in July, to 3.8% y/y, keeps an interest rate cut at next week’s policy meeting on the table. It will be a close call, but on balance we think the central bank... 8th August 2019 · 2 mins read
