Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s recovery worries, hawks fly in Chile The disappointing economic data out of Brazil this week has cast some clouds over the economy’s recovery prospects. As it happens, we think that GDP growth will pick up quite strongly in Q3, but we’re... 3rd September 2021 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EM assets & the risk of higher inflation We think that there is a risk of a period of moderately higher inflation in some major emerging markets (EMs) over the coming years. If that came to pass, it would probably be bad news for local... 3rd September 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (August) Mexico’s headline inflation rate dropped to a weaker-than-expected 5.6% y/y in the first half of August, but the further rise in core inflation will continue to concern the central bank. We expect... 24th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly More fiscal worries in Brazil, the regional re-opening Worries about a worsening of Brazil’s fiscal position in the run-up to next year’s general elections have continued to build, and we think there may now be a fiscal risk premium of about 50bp embedded... 20th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation risks growing Inflation is at, or close to, multi-year highs across Latin America which has prompted a slew of interest rate hikes across the region. We think that central banks in Brazil, Mexico, Chile and Peru... 19th August 2021 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Asia bucks the monetary policy trend Several EM central banks have continued to tighten monetary policy over the past month or so in response to strong reopening rebounds (Chile, Czech Republic, Hungary) and/or rising inflation concerns... 18th August 2021 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru & Mexico hikes, Chile’s public spending spree Peru’s central bank, under the renewed stewardship of Governor Julio Velarde, started its tightening cycle yesterday with a 25bp rate hike, to 0.50%, and we think that rates will rise to 2.75% by the... 13th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico’s tightening cycle progressing slowly Mexico’s central bank hiked interest rates by 25bp, to 4.50%, yesterday but the split vote suggests that the tightening cycle will continue to proceed slowly despite the growing inflation risks. This... 13th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.) The surprise 0.5% m/m fall in Mexico’s industrial production in June was driven by broad-based declines across sectors, including further disruption to auto production. Industry probably continued to... 11th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What our commodity forecasts mean for Latin America We expect that most commodity prices will come off the boil, which will weigh on recoveries across Latin America, particularly in Peru and Chile. While the brightening domestic picture will boost... 9th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) Despite the small fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 5.8% y/y in July, core inflation rose further to 4.7% y/y on the back of higher services inflation. This strong inflation reading will... 9th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Chile GDP, central bank hawks, Brazil’s meteor This week’s strong activity data from Chile reaffirms our long-held optimism over its economic recovery, and will probably cause the central bank to adopt a more hawkish stance. Other central banks in... 6th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus The economic fallout from political risks in Lat Am The pandemic appears to be accelerating a political trend towards populism in Latin America. While there is a lot of uncertainty about how this might play out, it generally points towards loose fiscal... 5th August 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Delta variant and EM tourism troubles The rapid spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus adds to reasons to think that lacklustre economic recoveries lie in store for tourism-dependent economies in Africa, parts of the Middle East... 4th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Worrying signs from Castillo, regional re-opening The first steps from Peru’s newly-inaugurated President, Pedro Castillo, provide plenty of worrying signs for investors and suggest that local financial markets will remain on the back foot. Meanwhile... 30th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2 Prov.) The re-opening of Mexico’s economy caused GDP growth to accelerate to 1.5% q/q in Q2, and we suspect that this preliminary figure will be revised up. But with new virus cases rising sharply, the... 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
