Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.) The stronger-than-expected 0.4% m/m rise in Mexico’s industrial production in August suggests that the economy may have held up better than we had previously anticipated in Q3. But, under the surface... 12th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Castillo moderates, Amlo’s intervention & ailing autos President Castillo’s cabinet reshuffle in Peru this week points towards more pragmatic policymaking which, while a possible headwind to near-term growth, should boost Peru’s medium- to long-term... 8th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) The rise in Mexico’s headline and core inflation to 6.0% y/y and 4.9% y/y in September adds to our view that the central bank’s tightening cycle has much further to run. We expect a further 125bp of... 7th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Five reasons why Mexico’s recovery will disappoint There are five key headwinds to Mexico’s economy, including high inflation and shortages in the auto sector, which suggest to us that the recovery will disappoint expectations from here. We now... 5th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM supply constraints mount Although the emerging market manufacturing PMI ticked up last month, EM industry has been undergoing a slowdown for some time. And the surveys show that supply constraints are mounting, which is... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & Colombia hike but tightening cycles to differ Central banks in Mexico and Colombia raised their policy rates by 25bp yesterday and more rate hikes are in the pipeline in both economies. The pace of tightening will remain gradual in Mexico but... 1st October 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack External headwinds growing Falling new virus cases and the lifting of restrictions have boosted economies across the region in Q3, but the deteriorating external backdrop will put a lid on growth from here. Even with an orderly... 28th September 2021 · 14 mins read
CE Spotlight Have emerging markets vanquished inflation? Low inflation is here to stay in much of the emerging world. However, there is a significant risk that inflation rises, albeit moderately, over the medium term in several countries. This risk isn’t... 27th September 2021 · 26 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep.) The renewed rise in Mexican headline and core inflation in the first two weeks of September, to 5.9% y/y and 4.9% y/y respectively, ensures that Banxico will continue its tightening cycle at its... 23rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s PASO surprise, Pemex debt The loss for Argentina’s ruling Peronists in the open primary (PASO) for mid-term legislative elections in November suggest that the political tides might be shifting and boosted local financial... 17th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Is high inflation here to stay in Latin America? Following a surge in inflation across the region this year, we think that headline rates are at, or close to, a peak in major Latin American economies. But strong underlying price pressures will... 15th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM financial conditions still loose barring LatAm Our financial conditions indices show that conditions remain loose by historic standards in most EMs. The key exception is Latin America, where conditions have tightened sharply this year due to... 13th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s political crisis, Mexico’s austere budget It’s been a rollercoaster week in Brazilian politics and financial markets and, while investors have breathed a small sigh of relief in the past day or so, we think that they will be put under further... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.) The stronger-than-expected 1.1% m/m rise in Mexico’s industrial production in July provides some encouragement that the economy fared well despite the onset of a third virus wave earlier this quarter... 10th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The pandemic and EM scarring risks The pandemic is likely to inflict lasting damage on potential growth in economies in much of Latin America, Africa and South and Southeast Asia, adding to the structural headwinds that they already... 9th September 2021 · 17 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) The drop in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 5.6% y/y in August masks a further rise in core inflation, to 4.8% y/y, which will be a concern for the central bank. This suggests that its gradual... 9th September 2021 · 2 mins read
