Latin America Economics Weekly Political risks: Peruvian protests & Chile’s constitution The mass protests this week in Peru, triggered by rising inflation, are likely to lead to a further shift towards looser fiscal policy and a larger political risk premium on local financial assets... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) The rise in Mexico’s headline and core inflation in March, to 7.45% y/y and 6.8% y/y respectively, has further to run in the near term as food and energy inflation edges higher. Broader price... 7th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inverted yield curves a poor signal for EM downturns While yield curves have inverted in a number of emerging markets (and look likely to do so in several others in the coming months), they don’t have a good track record in predicting recessions in the... 6th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: the implications of Amlo’s recall referendum Mexican President López Obrador is likely to remain in power after a recall referendum on his position this Sunday, which may embolden him to double down on his interventionist agenda. While a radical... 5th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Commodities boost Lat Am markets, economies less so High commodity prices caused by the war in Ukraine have driven a rally in Latin American currencies and equities this month, and are causing exports to surge. Weekly trade figures from Brazil and... 31st March 2022 · 16 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo unnerves, BCB outlook, new FX forecasts Yesterday’s comment by Mexican President López Obrador that Banxico would raise its policy rate by 50bp, four hours before the official decision, is not a big deal in itself. But it adds to the sense... 25th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico’s hawkish tilt as Amlo slips up Yesterday’s unanimous vote by Mexico’s central bank to raise the policy rate by 50bp, to 6.50%, came as no surprise since it had already been revealed by President López Obrador (Amlo) earlier in the... 25th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Mar.) While Mexico’s headline inflation stabilised at 7.3% y/y in the first half of March, the further rise in the core rate to 6.6% y/y suggests that the central bank is still struggling to keep a lid on... 24th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fed tightening and the fallout for Latin America The US Fed's tightening cycle is unlikely to be a major concern for much of Latin America, although Chile's large current account deficit may become a growing vulnerability. The Fed’s move may also... 18th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jan.) The unexpectedly-strong 1.0% m/m rise in Mexico’s industrial production in January suggests the economy came through the Omicron wave in decent shape. That said, the fallout from the war in Ukraine... 11th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update New forecasts for Lat Am inflation & rates We estimate that the impact of higher fuel, food and potentially goods prices triggered by the war in Ukraine will add roughly 1.0%-pt to headline inflation rates across major Latin American economies... 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation to 7.3% y/y in February was mainly driven by a jump in the core rate to 6.6% y/y and the fallout from the war in Ukraine will push inflation up further in the... 9th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Fresh headwinds appear The easing of Omicron waves, and loosening of restrictions, across Latin America will have given a lift to recoveries in recent weeks, but the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis presents a fresh... 24th February 2022 · 16 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb.) The small rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 7.2% y/y over the first half of February was driven by a jump in core inflation to 6.5% y/y, suggesting the central bank is struggling in its... 24th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s growth spurt, Brazil’s rally Q4 GDP figures out this week showed that Colombia’s surprisingly strong recovery has been fuelled by rapid consumer spending growth, but this is unlikely to last as the boost from the re-opening fades... 18th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update High oil prices more harm than good for Lat Am Persistently high oil prices would bode ill for current account positions in much of Latin America, adding to the existing vulnerabilities in Chile. It would also keep inflation elevated, leading to... 16th February 2022 · 3 mins read
