Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 8.7% y/y in August will strengthen the case for Banxico to deliver a third consecutive 75bp increase to interest rates later this month. But... 8th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Aug.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 8.6% y/y in the first two weeks of August raises the risk that Banxico pushes through another 75bp interest rate hike at next... 24th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico and the impact of US economic weakness Weakness in the US economy over the coming quarters is likely to result in softer (rather than a collapse in) demand for Mexico’s goods exports as supply constraints fade, but the recovery in the... 22nd August 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s tax reform, inflation problems persist The new tax bill unveiled by Colombia’s government, which aims to raise tax revenues to fund the government’s social programmes and “consolidate the fiscal adjustment” doesn’t change our view that the... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico to take its foot off the brakes Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) hiked interest rates by 75bp, to 8.50%, for a second consecutive meeting yesterday but, amid mounting evidence that the economy is struggling and with inflation close... 12th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.) Mexico’s industrial sector posted sluggish growth of just 0.1% m/m in June and the data suggest that the first estimate of Q2 GDP growth may be revised down. The backdrop of weakness in the US means... 11th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 8.2% y/y in July, coming alongside the stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP figures released in late-July, mean that Banxico is almost certain to hike interest... 9th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2 Prov.) Provisional GDP figures show that Mexico’s economy grew by a stronger-than-expected 1.0% q/q in Q2 and we have nudged up our forecast for GDP growth this year to 2.3% (from 1.8% previously). Even so... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul.) The further rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 8.2% y/y in the first two weeks of July means that Banxico is all but certain to deliver another 75bp hike in interest rates, to 8.50%, at its... 22nd July 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics We think the Mexican peso will fall further We expect the Mexican peso to fall further against the US dollar amid mounting external headwinds. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this FX Markets Update to clients of our Latin... 15th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation near a peak, but little comfort for central banks Inflation rose to multi-decade highs in much of Latin America last month and, while it should peak in Q3, headline rates will remain uncomfortably high for some time. Central banks in the region... 14th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (May) Industrial production in Mexico rose by a disappointing 0.1% m/m and timely indicators suggest that the sector was even weaker still in June. With growth in the US weakening, we expect industrial... 12th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina, Banxico minutes, Brazil data dump While Argentina’s new finance minister has made some encouraging noises about sticking to the current IMF deal, there’s still no acknowledgement that the real exchange rate needs to weaken to restore... 8th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun.) The rise in Mexican inflation to 8.0% y/y, its highest rate since 2001, will sustain the hawkish shift seen on the Banxico Board at its latest meeting in June. A 75bp hike in the policy rate in August... 7th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack High inflation fuels strikes and protests High inflation seems to be causing growing unrest in the region, which threatens to be economically disruptive and raise fiscal concerns. Recent protests in Ecuador have hit its oil sector hard, while... 28th June 2022 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Petro reaction, Lula’s plans, hawkish central banks Gustavo Petro’s win in Colombia’s presidential election has caused tremors in the country’s financial markets. While the appointment of a centrist finance minister could help to settle investors’... 24th June 2022 · 6 mins read
