Latin America Economics Update Banxico’s tightening cycle shifts up a gear The Mexican central bank’s shift to a 75bp interest rate hike yesterday (to 7.75%) and the hawkish language in the accompanying statement make another 75bp move at the next meeting in August a done... 24th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (June) The stronger-than-expected rise in inflation to 7.9% in the first two weeks of June adds to the pressure on Banxico to fight stubbornly strong price pressures. We think Banxico will step up the pace... 23rd June 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico outlook, Brazil GDP, Colombia election Given the Fed’s hawkish shift and the recent sell-off in the Mexican peso, we now think that Banxico will step up the pace of tightening with a 75bp rate hike next week, to 7.75%. Elsewhere, in Brazil... 17th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s IMF review, Mexican industry recovering This week's staff-level agreement between the IMF and Argentina, for the first review of its $44bn deal, gave little assurance that the Fund will knuckle down on the country’s growing inflation and... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) Mexico’s inflation rate stabilised at 7.7% y/y in May and we expect that it will trend lower in the coming months. This may temper some of the hawkish sentiment at Banxico. We think that it will stick... 9th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Colombia: no more business as usual The first round of Colombia’s presidential election has set up a close race between left-wing Gustavo Petro and populist Rodolfo Hernández in the second round vote on 19 th June. The vote was a major... 30th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Petrobras debacle, Banxico minutes, Colombia votes The news this week that Brazil’s President Bolsonaro sacked the CEO of oil giant Petrobras, José Mauro Coelho, provides a worrying sign about the direction of policymaking in the run-up to October’s... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth hit by China lockdown and war in Ukraine Recently-released Q1 GDP figures showed that most EMs performed well at the start of this year, but headwinds are growing. Lockdowns are dealing a heavy blow to China’s economy and spillovers from the... 26th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May) While Mexico’s headline inflation edged down to 7.6% y/y in the first two weeks of May, this will provide little comfort to the central bank as price pressures remain stubbornly strong. The risks are... 24th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) The rise in Mexico’s headline and core inflation in April, to 7.7% y/y and 7.2% y/y respectively, has a bit further to run in the near term. This will prompt Banxico to deliver another 50bp rate hike... 9th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Inflation alarm bells, Amlo seeks price freeze The rise in inflation to multi-decade highs across much of the region in April is clearly worrying policymakers and, this week, Mexico’s government became the latest to announce measures to cushion... 6th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1 Prov.) The pick-up in Mexico’s GDP growth to 0.9% q/q last quarter was largely a result of a strong carryover from late 2021, and the economy was weakening sharply heading into Q2. As the headwinds from high... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Food inflation a growing concern Inflation continues to march higher in Latin America, most recently driven by surging food prices owing to poor domestic weather conditions and rising global agricultural prices. This has led to... 27th April 2022 · 11 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.) The rise in Mexico’s inflation to 7.7% y/y in the first two weeks of April was driven by a broad based strengthening of price pressures, which will be a concern for the central bank. This, alongside... 22nd April 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook High commodity prices won’t lift all boats The surge in commodity prices will drive stronger regional growth than the consensus expects this year, but not all economies in Latin America will benefit. While Brazil and Colombia will see a terms... 21st April 2022 · 26 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Feb.) The disappointing 1.0% m/m fall in Mexico’s industrial production in February was partly because a temporary boost to mining output at the start of the year reversed course. But there were broader... 11th April 2022 · 2 mins read
