Venezuela-Guyana tensions, new macro forecasts

Venezuela’s increasingly assertive claims over the oil-rich Essequibo region, internationally recognised as part of Guyana, has raised the risk of some kind of miscalculation that leads to military skirmishes between the two countries. Were this to materialise, there could be a spike in oil prices in the near-term. But given that Venezuela and Guyana are minor producers, the impact on our supply forecasts would be small. Meanwhile, the key message of our latest Latin America Economics Outlook is that growth will be sluggish in 2024, meaning that Latin America's post-pandemic recovery will remain the weakest of any EM region.