Latin America Economics Update Latin America: five key calls for 2022 We think that Latin American GDP growth will slow by more than most expect in 2022, while inflation will also drop more a bit more quickly than the consensus anticipates. This feeds into our... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Dec.) Inflation in Mexico stabilised at 7.4% y/y in December and, with price pressures likely to remain strong, we expect Banxico to deliver another 50bp rate hike, to 6.00%, at its meeting in February... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Mid-Month CPI (Dec.) The fall in Brazilian inflation, to 10.4% y/y, in mid-December is likely to be followed by further declines in the coming months. Inflation in Mexico edged up in the same period, to 7.45% y/y, but we... 23rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Omicron may hinder already weakening recoveries Recoveries across Latin America have lost momentum in Q4 even though, unlike in other regions such as Europe, new COVID-19 cases generally remain low and containment measures are still light-touch at... 22nd December 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly 2021 in review For the last Weekly of the year we look back at some our key 2021 forecasts. Our biggest wins were predicting that Brazil’s government would effectively cast aside its spending cap and that Colombia... 17th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico starting to act tough on inflation Banxico added to this week’s global central banking bonanza with a surprise 50bp hike, to 5.50%, and the widespread hawkish shift on the Board suggests that policymakers will act more aggressively to... 17th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Powell pivot and what it means for EMs Yesterday’s Fed meeting confirmed a hawkish shift. Turkey aside, we doubt that this is likely to cause major strains in the balance of payments of most EMs. But the Fed’s hawkish turn may cause... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am’s recovery falling behind other EMs The recent batch of GDP figures showed that growth in Latin America as a whole picked up in Q3, but the region’s recovery so far has been one of the weakest in the emerging world. And growth prospects... 13th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) The small 0.6% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in October was helped by a rebound in auto production, suggesting the sector may be starting to turn a corner. However, the risk of further... 10th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov.) The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation to a 20-year high of 7.4% y/y in November will be a concern for Banxico. But it was partly driven by unfavourable base effects which will soon unwind. And given... 9th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks and Omicron, Colombia CA risks The emergence of the Omicron variant presents a key risk to economic recoveries in the region, although the experience from the latest virus wave in the region provides a reason to think it will not... 3rd December 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Omicron variant and the threat to EMs There’s a lot that we don’t know about the new Omicron variant. But if it proves more virulent, the economic fallout would probably be largest in EMs in parts of Africa and South and South East Asia... 29th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly New face at Banxico, Chile election wrap-up The unexpected change in the nomination for Banxico’s next governor, to Victoria Rodríguez from Arturo Herrera, hit investor confidence but we don't think this switch alters the outlook for Banxico’s... 26th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Unpacking the oddities in Mexican GDP The final estimate of Mexican Q3 GDP data was revised down to a 0.4% q/q fall (original -0.2% q/q), but the breakdown showed the contraction was almost entirely due to an outsourcing law that hit... 25th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Political storm clouds lifting for investors…for now Political developments in Latin America have generally turned in investors’ favour this month. Right-wing José Antonio Kast beat his left-wing rival, Gabriel Boric, in the first round of Chile’s... 24th November 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.) The surge in Mexico’s inflation to 7.05% y/y in the first two weeks of November – the highest since 2001 – was partly a result of unfavourable base effects, but underlying price pressures were also... 24th November 2021 · 2 mins read
