RBA Watch RBA will hold its fire as economy rebounds The Reserve Bank of Australia is almost certain to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.6% at its meeting ending on September 30th. After all, the economy is bouncing back more strongly than the Bank... 24th September 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Sep. 2025) September’s flash PMIs suggest that the downside risks around economic activity may be growing a bit and the upside risks to inflation may be fading, albeit only slowly. But with inflation likely to... 23rd September 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update H-1B change highlights crackdown on legal immigration too The White House’s decision to impose a $100,000 application fee for H-1B visas confirms that the Trump administration is also determined to clamp down on legal immigration, which could further reduce... 22nd September 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economic Outlook More tax rises to add to economy’s woes The prospect of more tax hikes in the Budget in November adds to our view that inflation in the UK won’t remain higher than in the euro-zone and that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 4... 22nd September 2025 · 18 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) We expect growth to average more than 2.0% annualised in the second half of the year. The recent slowdown in employment growth and limited pass-through of tariffs to consumer prices has opened the... 18th September 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Aug. 2025) Despite the weak employment print for August, there appears to be limited spare capacity in the labour market. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our view that the RBA will only cut rates by another 50bp... 18th September 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jul./Aug. 2025) While the further, albeit modest, falls in payroll employment and our seasonally adjusted measure of single-month job vacancies in August suggest that the labour market continued to loosen gradually... 16th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan will resume tightening this year While trade tensions have started to weigh on Japan’s exports, the wider economy has shrugged off these headwinds. With inflation still running hot, we expect the Bank of Japan to leave the door open... 12th September 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Economy is doing better than weak payrolls suggest The news that payroll employment growth was 911,000 weaker than previously believed last year creates the impression the economy was in trouble even before the more recent near-stagnation in... 11th September 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Aug 2025) Although the 0.4% m/m rise in the all-items CPI was slightly stronger than expected, our estimates still point to a target-consistent 0.18% m/m gain in the core PCE deflator last month. That cements... 11th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Labour-market-induced fears of recession are overdone Weak employment data have revived recession talk in several advanced economies. However, detecting recessions early requires examining a range of indicators rather than just focusing on the labour... 10th September 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Non-Farm Payrolls Preliminary Benchmark Revision (2025) The preliminary benchmark estimate points to a massive 911,000 downward revision to the level of non-farm payroll employment in March 2025 and, based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages... 9th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) Economic growth has been fairly resilient to tariffs so far and, as long as tariffs stay around the 15% agreed in the EU-US trade deal, the hit to activity should be small. But growth will be sluggish... 9th September 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly September rate cut now looks almost certain The August Labour Force Survey was weak, with employment falling by 66,500 and the unemployment rate rising to a four-year high of 7.1%. While the Bank of Canada always expected some weakness in... 5th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Aug. 2025) The second consecutive large fall in employment together with the renewed rise in the unemployment rate underscore that conditions in the labour market remain bleak amid the impact of US tariffs. The... 5th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Aug. 2025) While the weak 22,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August confirms what already looked a nailed-on rate cut at this month’s FOMC meeting, the limited rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% will curb... 5th September 2025 · 2 mins read
