Canada Economics Update New immigration targets may give the BoC further pause The government’s new immigration targets raise the risk that most forecasters, including the Bank of Canada, are overestimating the outlook for population growth. While that presents a downside risk... 10th November 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Taking the pulse of the economy using alternative data Alternative data suggest the economy continued to perform reasonably well early in the fourth quarter. Fears of a renewed labour market downturn, amid reports of mass layoffs at several large firms... 10th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Oct. 2025) The surprise boost to employment and fall in the unemployment rate in October reinforces the Bank of Canada’s view that it should now sit on the sidelines and await more clarify on the impact of... 7th November 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) If the Chancellor raises taxes by around £38bn (1.1% of GDP) in the Budget on 26th November as we expect, that may knock 0.2 percentage points off our 2026 GDP growth forecast of 1.2%. But it supports... 7th November 2025 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Why is hiring soft despite resilient GDP growth? Lower immigration, increased use of AI and cyclical weakness outside of the main tech sectors are the key reasons for the slowdown in private sector hiring this year. There is a risk that the drags... 6th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (November 2025) We expect euro-zone GDP growth to remain fairly slow in the coming years. Germany’s fiscal stimulus should provide a temporary and fairly modest boost, and we don’t think it will do much to raise... 6th November 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 25) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth will slow from its current above-trend rate to a more sustainable pace. However, with... 6th November 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Sep. 2025) Although wage growth picked up a notch in September, regular earnings growth remained lacklustre. That said, if we’re right that next year’s spring wage negotiations will result in a strong lift in... 6th November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Consumption won’t fall off a cliff Fears that weak payroll gains will cause a sharp slowdown in consumption growth over the next year are overblown. The immigration crackdown will prevent wage growth from slowing much further, and... 5th November 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US ADP Employment Report (Oct. 2025) The 42,000 rebound in ADP private employment in October lends support to the view that firms are resuming hiring now they have more clarity on trade and immigration policy. That said, the usual caveat... 5th November 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3 2025) The tepid Q3 jobs report should ensure that the RBNZ cuts rates by another 25bp at its meeting on 26 th November. However, given signs that the labour market is bottoming out, we suspect that this cut... 4th November 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update CE UK Wage Indicator suggests pay growth is stuck at 5% Our CE UK Wage Indicator extracts the overall signal from a range of measures of wage growth and suggests that while pay growth probably isn’t rising as fast as the official data suggest, it isn’t... 4th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s immigration boom set to continue While other major European countries have taken some steps to limit immigration, Spain has liberalised its immigration rules further this year. So we think immigration to Spain will remain very high... 3rd November 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) Recent developments reinforce the divergent outlooks for the Antipodean economies. The RBA has cut rates by just 75bp so far. Given the relative resilience of the Australian economy and ongoing signs... 3rd November 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Focus shifts from monetary to fiscal policy Despite the hawkish messaging from the Bank of Canada alongside its cut this week, we suspect it will be forced to resume lowering interest rates next year. For now, the attention shifts to fiscal... 31st October 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ on course for January rate hike While the Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged this week, Governor Ueda signaled that the Board won’t wait much longer before resuming its tightening cycle. Indeed, with structural labour... 31st October 2025 · 4 mins read
