UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Apr. 2025) The marked fall in the composite PMI in April raises the chances that the uncertainty stemming from the US tariffs chaos will be a bigger drag on the UK economy than we previously anticipated. That... 23rd April 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (April 2025) April’s euro-zone flash PMIs suggest that the immediate damage to production from US trade policy has been limited so far. But firms reported some front-loading of orders, so output might take a... 23rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA won’t cut nearly as far as the RBNZ Markets remain optimistic that the RBA will cut its cash rate from 4.1% at present to below 3% by year-end. But with the labour market still tight and activity starting to rebound, we're sticking to... 17th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Mar. 2025) 17th April 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Feb. 2025) While the jobs market weakened further, there were few signs this is feeding through to slower wage growth. But if the more uncertain backdrop from the recent US tariffs chaos soon becomes a bigger... 15th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Apr. 25) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Japan's economy will be hit less hard than many other large economies by the recent escalation of... 15th April 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canada set for sustained period of weak growth We have updated our forecasts for Canada to account for the latest changes in US trade policy. A recession should be avoided, but the harsh tariffs on the vehicle sector and uncertainty about the... 10th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) While Canada escaped “liberation day” relatively unscathed, the imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come will still weigh on exports, consumer confidence and investment. With immigration also... 9th April 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Higher US tariffs will be a substantial drag on the euro-zone economy this year. Looser fiscal policy in Germany will give a small boost in 2026, but overall we expect the euro-zone to grow fairly... 9th April 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (April 2025) Higher US tariffs will be a substantial drag on the euro-zone economy this year. Looser fiscal policy in Germany will give a small boost in 2026, but overall we expect the euro-zone to grow fairly... 8th April 2025 · 0 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Mar. 2025) The bumper 228,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in March offers some welcome good news amid the escalating global trade war, showing that the labour market remains healthy despite the drag from DOGE-led... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Mar 2025) While US tariffs will be the obvious culprit for the fall in employment in March, two-thirds of the decline was concentrated in the services sector, suggesting that other factors were at play... 4th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will cut rates to 2.5% by mid-2026 We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut its Official Cash Rate by 25bp, to 3.5%, at its next meeting on 9th April. Although activity is now on the mend, spare capacity will ease only... 2nd April 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data largely static for now February’s JOLTS data show a labour market settling back into its pre-pandemic norms. With limited signs of DOGE’s trimming of the federal workforce in the survey, all eyes will now turn to March’s... 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economic Outlook UK Outlook: Headwinds strengthen and tailwinds lighten We’ve become more concerned about the outlook for the economy due to the drags from higher businesses taxes and the more uncertain global backdrop being bigger than we thought and the boost from... 31st March 2025 · 17 mins read
