UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Oct./Nov. 2023) The sharp fall in wage growth in October will probably further fuel investors’ expectations that interest rates could be cut as soon as the middle of next year and it leaves our forecast for rate cuts... 12th December 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Focus Resurgence in labour force has further to run The resurgence in the labour force over the past year mainly reflects the ongoing boost to participation from increasing opportunities for women to combine parenthood with work, more young people... 11th December 2023 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Why we’ve changed our ECB view We had been expecting next Thursday’s ECB meeting to be another non-event, but it now looks likely to provide some idea of how soon and how fast policymakers are willing to start cutting interest... 8th December 2023 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ sending further signals that negative rates will end Data released this week showed that inflation fell sharply in Tokyo while wage growth remains well below the levels the BoJ considers necessary for meeting its 2% inflation target on a sustained basis... 8th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Further falls in GDP to trigger interest rate cuts Further declines in GDP in the coming quarters mean that the economy is unlikely to grow at all next year. Weak growth and a return in inflation to the 2% target will leave scope for the Bank of... 7th December 2023 · 14 mins read
US Economic Outlook Despite soft landing, inflation rapidly normalising As core inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the middle of next year, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at every meeting next year from March onwards, with rates... 6th December 2023 · 16 mins read
China Economic Outlook Stronger start, weaker end to 2024 China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property... 6th December 2023 · 18 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data show growing labour market slack November JOLTS data suggest that labour market slack is growing, even as payroll growth remains relatively resilient. With signs pointing to a sharper fall in wage growth ahead, the Fed can be... 5th December 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Softer landing, but the runway is longer With higher interest rates taking longer to percolate through the economy, we now think the recession will be shallower and GDP growth will stay weak throughout all of 2024. It’s a softer landing for... 5th December 2023 · 19 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Negative rates will end next year Following a strong 2023, GDP growth is set to slow towards potential next year and the labour market will tread water for now. However, with the virtuous cycle between consumer prices and inflation... 4th December 2023 · 18 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s Messi of finances, job markets, Banxico to cut? The confirmation that Luis Caputo will be Argentina’s next economy minister reinforces our view that, while President-elect Javier Milei is likely to put the economy through shock therapy, it will be... 1st December 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Cooling labour market will be crucial for rate cuts The possibility that the labour market is tighter than it looked has placed a question mark over when the Bank of England will be able to cut interest rates. Our forecast for services inflation and... 1st December 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Sluggish activity need not prevent BoJ from tightening Consumer spending probably isn't quite as weak as the retail sales would suggest and we still expect GDP to rebound this quarter. However, the continued weakness in new job openings suggests that the... 1st December 2023 · 7 mins read