Europe Economics Weekly Tensions simmering between the EU and China Tensions between the EU and China over rare earths and semiconductors, which continued to simmer this week, could weigh on euro-zone industry, particularly the defence and auto sectors. Next week, the... 24th October 2025 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Oct. 2025) October’s flash PMIs suggest that the economy continued to muddle through at the start of Q4 and the upside risks to inflation faded a bit further. This probably won’t prompt the Bank of England to... 24th October 2025 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Dearth of official data won’t stop Fed from cutting The weakness in various labour market indicators suggest the FOMC will vote for another 25bp cut next week, lowering the fed funds target range to between 3.75% and 4.00%. The threat of broader... 22nd October 2025 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed on autopilot through shutdown fog Comments from Chair Powell and various other FOMC participants confirm the federal funds rate will be lowered again later this month in spite of the recent rebound in surveyed hiring intentions. We... 17th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to cut in November as labour market cools RBA officials have recently been downplaying the potential for further rate cuts. However, we believe their hawkish pivot won't last. Indeed, the surge in the jobless rate to a four-year high in... 17th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) While the economy appears to be narrowly avoiding recession, we expect GDP growth to average less than 1% annualised over the second half of the year, with the unemployment rate rising toward 7.3%... 16th October 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Sep. 2025) The marked loosening of the labour market last month bolsters the case for the RBA to cut rates by 25bp at its meeting in November. Even so, the decision will probably come down to the wire, given the... 16th October 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Aug./Sep. 2025) The modest further falls in both payroll employment and job vacancies in September suggest that the labour market is loosening, but wage growth is still easing only fairly gradually. This suggests the... 14th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Real wages not falling as much as official data suggest Real wages haven’t fallen as sharply as the official data released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare would suggest. Nonetheless, it is striking that workers are not benefitting much from... 13th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s job market, Argentina’s bailout, Peru’s crisis The announcement that the US Treasury purchased Argentine peso assets has provided a boost to Argentina’s financial markets. It's unclear what the US will demand in exchange, but it could include the... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Sep. 2025) The broad-based jump in employment in September reversed much of the weakness in prior months and will help reassure policymakers that they can afford to focus on the upside risks to inflation for now... 10th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ’s easing cycle will be over by year-end We were among the minority of analysts who correctly predicted that the RBNZ would slash its policy rate by 50bp this week and we still expect another 25bbp cut at its November meeting. However... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (October 2025) We expect euro-zone GDP growth to remain fairly slow in the coming years. Germany’s fiscal stimulus should provide a temporary and fairly modest boost, but we don’t think that it will do much to raise... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) The prospect of around £27bn of tax hikes in the Budget on 26th November poses a downside risk to our forecast for GDP to grow by 1.2% in 2026 and by 1.5% in 2027. But it adds to our views that CPI... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth will slow from its current above-trend rate to a more sustainable pace. However, with... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Aug. 25) The sharp slowdown in wage growth in August largely reflects the end of the summer bonus season and regular earnings growth seems to be settling around 2%-2.5%. 8th October 2025 · 2 mins read
