US Commercial Property Update A mid-year stock-take on US sector and metro level job growth We expect office-based jobs growth to remain at a standstill through 2026 as the tech sector cuts back and AI fills some of the gap. At the metro level though, our expectations are broadly unchanged... 6th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update The Labour Force Survey is overstating jobs growth The Labour Force Survey is overstating population growth and therefore almost certainly overestimating employment growth. The alternative Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours points to much weaker... 6th August 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Will healthcare continue to boost payrolls growth? There are several headwinds to healthcare & social assistance employment that suggest it is unlikely to continue growing at its recent rapid pace, although we doubt payroll gains in the sector will... 6th August 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Despite the unexpected rise in CPI inflation in June, we still think the weakness in the labour market means it’s only a matter of time before wage growth and inflation slow to rates consistent with... 6th August 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Jun. 2025) Although regular earnings growth has been struggling to gain momentum, we think it will do so before long. Accordingly, the data shouldn’t stand in the way of the Bank of Japan resume its tightening... 6th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q2 2025) With New Zealand’s labour market continuing to slacken in Q2, the RBNZ is all but certain push ahead with a 25bp cut at its meeting later this month. 6th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Get used to weaker payrolls growth The July Employment Report was a taste of what is to come, with payroll gains set to be much weaker in the coming quarters than has been the case in recent years. This is the new normal amid the... 5th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Jul. 2025) The ISM services survey highlights the challenges for the Fed in the coming months, with the activity and employment indicators weakening even as the prices paid index rose to a new cyclical high. 5th August 2025 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA Watch: Despite its cautious tone, RBA will cut rates to 2.85% With underlying inflation within striking distance of the midpoint of the RBA’s 2-3% target, the Board should have no qualms about cutting rates by 25bp at its meeting next Tuesday. Although the Bank... 5th August 2025 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Payrolls move the narrative back in the doves’ favour The downside surprise to payrolls in July and significant downward revisions to May and June have left markets convinced that the Fed will cut in September, which is looking more likely but isn’t a... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Jul. 2025) The weak 73,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in July, combined with large downward revisions to May and June’s gains and an uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, will strengthen the case for those on... 1st August 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Trade tensions unlikely to reduce wage growth much While the Bank of Japan became more upbeat about the outlook for inflation this week, it still thinks that trade tensions will result in a slower wage growth via lower corporate profits. However, with... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS static as firms await greater tariff certainty The JOLTS data for June show a labour market waiting in suspense for the Trump administration to settle on a final arsenal of country-specific tariffs. While the federal layoff rate remains roughly... 29th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (July 2025) The latest data suggest that global industry has been resilient to tariffs so far this year. But global trade softened in May and the latest surveys point to further weakness to come. Consumer... 29th July 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: A bad deal is better than no deal Reports this week suggest that the EU and US are on the brink of agreeing a trade deal with a 15% baseline tariff on US imports from the bloc. It’s hard to spin it as a good deal, but it would at... 25th July 2025 · 9 mins read
