Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA’s gradualism poses upside risks to rates The minutes of the RBA's July meeting showed that the Board remains reluctant to declare victory in the war on inflation – a sentiment reiterated by Governor Bullock in a speech this week. We suspect... 25th July 2025 · 5 mins read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Payroll growth slowing with more weakness to come We expect the recent boost from state & local government hiring to fade, resulting in a smaller 130,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in July. The immigration crackdown likely kept the unemployment rate... 24th July 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Jul. 2025) July’s flash PMIs paint a picture of the economy struggling to recover from a spring lull, a labour market that is still weakening and price pressures that are continuing to ease. This should reassure... 24th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (July 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Australia’s economy is struggling to gain momentum, while the recent rebound in activity in New... 24th July 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update No single tariff playbook for central banks While higher tariffs will cause some Asian economies to pursue slightly looser monetary policy than otherwise, domestic factors will be the key driving force behind rate decisions in most economies in... 23rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (July 2025) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Japan’s economy has largely shrugged off global trade tensions and the trade deal reached between... 23rd July 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Hotter inflation will deter the Bank from cutting rates quicker We think the hotter-than-anticipated inflation figures will deter the Bank of England from speeding up the pace of interest rate cuts rather than cause it to slow down. That’s why we’re sticking to... 18th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Labour market not an obstacle to RBA rate cuts The strong uptick in Australia's unemployment rate in June may be overstating the actual degree of slack in the labour market. After all, the underutilisation rate remains historically low and... 18th July 2025 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Tariff negotiations rumble on, but our base case remains that the tariffs ultimately imposed will not cause a recession – though we expect growth to slow. We forecast GDP growth of 1.6% this year and... 17th July 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (July 2025) The economy faces a prolonged period of weak growth as US tariffs and uncertainty over the future of the USMCA weigh on exports and investment. We forecast quarterly GDP growth at or below 1%... 17th July 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (May/Jun. 2025) The fallout in the labour market from the hikes in National Insurance Contributions and the minimum wage is not as big as previously thought. Even so, as payroll employment is falling and wage growth... 17th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (June 2025) The sharp rise in unemployment in June makes the RBA’s decision to leave rates on hold earlier this month look like a policy error. We’re increasingly convinced that the incoming data flow will prompt... 17th July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Rise in continuing claims not a big cause for concern The pace of the increase in continuing jobless claims would have to accelerate significantly to present a risk to our forecast that the unemployment rate will only edge higher this year. 15th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Event US Drop-In: August payrolls briefing – Macro, policy and market implications 5th September 2025, 3:00PM BST Join our US team on Friday 5th September at 10:00 ET/15:00 BST, soon after the release of the August Employment Report for this special online briefing all
Event Drop-In: The January US employment report and the labour market outlook 11th February 2026, 4:30PM GMT The first official US jobs report of 2026 will be a significant one, with the delayed release set to reflect major revisions to last year’s payroll estimates, alongside other critical adjustments t
