US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Employment growth gradually cooling We forecast a smaller 130,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June. We expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings growth likely held steady too, at 3.9% y/y. 26th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook ANZ Outlook: Central banks to loosen further as recoveries falter Australia’s economy is struggling to gain momentum, while the recent rebound in activity in New Zealand isn’t likely to be sustained. As the lull in activity lifts spare capacity, underlying price... 26th June 2025 · 20 mins read
China Economic Outlook China Outlook: Fiscal prop to fade as exports slow Exports would almost certainly have weighed on China’s growth whatever happened this year, but US tariffs – even at their reduced rate – will worsen the drag. Fiscal support has been propping up... 25th June 2025 · 16 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) The latest data suggest that the boost to industry and trade from businesses front-running US tariffs is over. Manufacturing activity softened in April and May, and new orders have weakened. While... 24th June 2025 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) We assume that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs is mostly extended, keeping tariffs at 10% for countries except China, which will face a steeper 40% levy. Tariffs will not cause a recession –... 23rd June 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Europe Outlook: Inflation at the target but growth will be weak The euro-zone’s strong first-quarter growth rate was a result of tariff front-running and will be reversed in Q2 and be followed by weak growth in the second half of the year. Further ahead, we think... 23rd June 2025 · 28 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Jun. 2025) June’s composite PMI is consistent with GDP doing little more than flatlining in Q2, the Bank of England will be reassured that the recent cooling in the labour market finally appears to be weighing... 23rd June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June 2025) June’s flash PMI survey for the euro-zone was consistent with the economy flat-lining. The recent jump in energy costs has not yet fed through to output prices, but the uncertainty created by the... 23rd June 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Japan Outlook: BoJ will resume tightening cycle later this year The Bank of Japan will stay on the sidelines for a few more months as GDP growth softens and trade tensions cloud the outlook. But with the labour market set to remain very tight, wages rising... 23rd June 2025 · 18 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Carney plays hardball on US trade deal A US-Canada trade deal centered on lowering the most onerous US duties, like those on steel, aluminium and motor vehicles, would not stop the economy from slowing later this year, but it would improve... 20th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Slowing migration may keep RBA in a dovish mood Australia's population growth has declined by nearly 1%-pt since its post-pandemic peak, driven in large part by a normalisation in international student arrivals. The drop in foreign student numbers... 20th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Carmakers slashing prices in response to US tariffs There are signs that Japanese carmakers are reducing their prices in the US to retain market share, which seems to vindicate the Bank of Japan’s concerns that US tariffs will weigh on corporate... 19th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (May 2025) Labour market and population data published today are sending mixed signals about capacity pressures in the economy. Either way, they probably won’t prevent the RBA from cutting rates further in the... 19th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly China trade access, SA unemployment, Kenya budget China’s pledge to provide tariff-free access to imports from Africa is a clear effort to strengthen ties as the US disengages from the region, and also appears to be a concessions to African leaders... 13th June 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Chancellor’s fingers are all over weak employment The Chancellor would have hoped that her Spending Review would leave us all talking about how her policies have improved the economic outlook. Instead, the most striking development of the week was... 13th June 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update German fiscal stimulus won’t boost inflation much The upcoming fiscal stimulus in Germany will boost core inflation a bit, but we think the effect will be small and that the core rate will average just over 2% in 2026 and 2027. The stimulus will have... 12th June 2025 · 5 mins read
