US Economics Update Immigration crackdown hitting labour supply After stemming the inflow of unauthorised immigration over the Southwest border, the Trump administration now appears to be gradually ramping up the number of detentions and removals. This crackdown... 9th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) We think the euro-zone economy will not grow at all in Q2 and Q3 as the first-quarter boost from tariff front-running will not be repeated. Looking through the tariff disruption, growth will be... 8th July 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Trade woes continue The May trade release underscored the difficulties facing exporters. On the face of it the data were positive, as exports rose by 1.1% while imports fell by 1.6% m/m. This was off the back of a grim... 4th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Q1 data wrap up for Saudi Arabia and Egypt The recent deterioration in Saudi Arabia’s current account deficit is likely to continue on the back of lower oil receipts. While large FX buffers will prevent major macro strains for now, the Kingdom... 3rd July 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Jun. 2025) & International Trade (May 2025) The 147,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June was reassuring after the fall in the ADP measure of employment reported yesterday. A deeper dive shows the strength was again concentrated in government... 3rd July 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Canada Outlook: Weak growth to (eventually) prompt more rate cuts The economy faces a period of weak growth as US tariffs and uncertainty over the future of the USMCA weigh on exports and investment. We forecast quarterly GDP growth of less than 1% annualised on... 2nd July 2025 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ Watch: RBNZ on pause in July, but easing has further to run With activity having rebounded strongly in Q1 and headline inflation firming up, the RBNZ is likely to leave rates unchanged at 3.25% next week. However, we’re not convinced that the economy has... 2nd July 2025 · 5 mins read
RBA Watch RBA Watch: RBA to frontload easing as downside risks grow We expect the RBA to cut rates by 25bp, to 3.60%, at its meeting ending on 8th July. With growth set to remain below trend and underlying inflation on track to fall further, we see little reason for... 2nd July 2025 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS shows little sign of labour market weakness The JOLTS data suggest the labour market remained healthy in May, with job openings and private sector hiring rising, and layoffs low. However, the sharp rise in accommodation and food services job... 1st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Fears about AI-driven job losses are overdone A number of AI-linked redundancies have hit the headlines recently, reigniting fears that the adoption of AI will lead to a surge in unemployment. We continue to think that fears of a big long-term... 30th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Stronger euro, 50% tariff looming The sustained appreciation of the euro will reduce headline euro-zone inflation slightly in the coming months and, at the margin, strengthens the case for a final interest rate cut in this cycle... 27th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA will cut rates to 2.85% by early-2026 There are growing signs that Australia's economic recovery is struggling for momentum. Moreover, both CPI data and business surveys suggest that this weakness in activity is translating into softer... 27th June 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook US Outlook: Trump policy mix still mildly stagflationary We expect tariffs to have only a modest impact on both real economic growth and price inflation. Admittedly, we do see annualised GDP growth slowing to around 1.5% in the second half of this year, but... 26th June 2025 · 16 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Emerging Markets Outlook: Growth concerns to prompt more rate cuts EM exports have held up well this year despite higher US tariffs, but the growth outlook over the second half of the year looks more challenging. We expect a slowdown in most EMs and our forecasts... 26th June 2025 · 28 mins read
