Japan Economics Update Resilience of profits adds to case for tighter policy With corporate profits hitting fresh record highs, the BoJ’s concern that US tariffs will provide a major headwind to business investment and wage growth looks increasingly overdone. To be sure... 1st December 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy doing poorly despite upside GDP surprise The upside surprise to third-quarter GDP growth greatly overstates the strength of the economy, with household spending contracting for the first time since the pandemic. Similarly, the Survey of... 28th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (Oct. 25) & Tokyo CPI (Nov. 25) With the labour market still tight and inflation excluding fresh food and energy set to remain above 3% for now, the Bank of Japan will resume its tightening cycle over the next couple of months. 27th November 2025 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Nov. 25) China's economy slowed in October, driven by weaker services sector activity. And the rebound in the trade-weighted exchange rate looks to have weighed on exports, which contracted in y/y terms. We... 27th November 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Update High-quality job growth supporting Spanish incomes While Spain’s fast rate of employment growth has attracted attention recently, the quality of jobs has also improved. In particular, the information and communication sector has seen significant... 27th November 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update A more formal, more flexible labour market Sweeping labour market reforms in India have been overshadowed by haphazard implementation and will raise compliance cost for firms in the near term. But once the dust settles, several new measures... 26th November 2025 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) We think the AI-investment boom is still in its relatively early stages and will eventually drive strong productivity gains as adoption of the technology rises. This keeps us optimistic on the growth... 25th November 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand: weak population growth holding back recovery The tighter labour market in Australia will continue to encourage large numbers of New Zealanders to move to Australia, holding back the recovery in the housing market and consumer spending. While... 25th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Wage growth falling, consumers gloomy, EC optimistic Data published this week confirmed that wage growth is slowing and consumers are downbeat. As a result, household spending growth is likely to remain subdued. Next week, we expect to learn that... 21st November 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Nov. 2025) November’s flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth is unlikely to snapback in Q4 and showed that services price pressures eased sharply. With what is set to be a big tax-raising Budget on Wednesday next... 21st November 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflationary pressures will abate before long The Reserve Bank of Australia continues to equivocate about the outlook for interest rates, given uncertainty over the extent of spare capacity in the economy. However, with wage pressures showing... 21st November 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Sep) The better-than-expected 119,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September should have further reduced the odds that the Fed will cut interest rates again next month. Admittedly, revisions subtracted... 20th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ: One last cut for the road We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to close out its easing cycle with a 25bp cut at its meeting ending on 26th November. Our sense is that the Bank will want to take out a final bit of... 19th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q3 2025) Although wage growth in Australia held steady last quarter, underlying momentum appears to have softened a touch. At the margin, that supports our view that the RBA will resume its easing cycle in H2... 19th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EZ GDP (2nd est.) & Employment (Q3) Data released today confirm that economic growth in the euro-zone picked up in Q3 but remained fairly subdued and that the labour market is cooling. We expect growth to remain sluggish and the labour... 14th November 2025 · 2 mins read
