Canada Economics Weekly

Canada Weekly: Exports hold up despite tariff blow

Trade with the US plunged in March, but a spike in exports elsewhere meant that overall exports were little changed. Nonetheless, we doubt that exporters will be able to rely on non-US demand to...

9th May 2025 · 5 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Labour Force Survey (Apr. 2025)

Employment would have fallen again in April were it not for the boost from the federal election, which supports our view that the Bank of Canada will resume its loosening cycle next month and...

9th May 2025 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Japan Weekly: Weakness in wage growth probably not genuine

While the trade deal agreed between the UK and the US this week sets an encouraging precedent, there are no signs of progress in the talks between Japan and the US. Meanwhile, the recent slump in...

9th May 2025 · 5 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Mar. 25)

9th May 2025 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Chart Pack

UK Economics Chart Pack (May 2025)

Although our base case remains that the hit to UK GDP growth from US tariffs will be relatively small, the downside risks to our below consensus forecast for GDP growth of 0.8% in 2025 have increased...

7th May 2025 · 1 min read

China Economics Update

Gauging the fallout in China’s labour market

Chinese policymakers will probably find ways to keep the published unemployment rate close to their “around 5.5%” target for this year. But this may mask broader weakness in the labour market as a...

7th May 2025 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2025)

7th May 2025 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Could a stronger yen thwart further BoJ tightening?

In current circumstances it would take a large strengthening of the yen to push inflation below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. And with profit margins close to record highs, the hit from a stronger...

6th May 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Resilient payrolls data point to higher Treasury yields

The stronger-than-expected April US Employment Report published today leaves us comfortable with our central scenario that the trade war won’t be enough to tip the US economy into recession. So, we...

2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read

US Rapid Response

US Employment Report (Apr 2025)

The healthy 177,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in April and unchanged unemployment rate will reassure the Fed that there is no need to be hasty in lowering interest rates when it meets next week. Given...

2nd May 2025 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone HICP (April 2025)

April’s rise in services inflation is unlikely to worry the ECB too much as it was probably driven mainly by Easter timing effects. We think services inflation will start falling again in the coming...

2nd May 2025 · 2 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Apr. 25)

US tariffs will start to weigh on China’s export growth soon. Domestic headwinds are also set to persist. A significant loosening of fiscal policy will help support the economy, but it won’t be enough...

29th April 2025 · 0 mins read

US Economics Update

JOLTS data healthy amid DOGE purge

The JOLTS data again showed the labour market stabilising at a healthy level in March. While there were for the first time some signs of the DOGE purge of the federal workforce in the survey, the...

29th April 2025 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

EC Survey (April 2025)

The ESI for April point to a small hit to the euro-zone from US tariffs in April and suggest that growth remained quite weak. With the drag from tariffs set to intensify, we expect euro-zone GDP to...

29th April 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: PMI data suggest limited impact from tariff turmoil

Australia's Flash PMIs suggest that the initial impact of global trade tensions has been modest, with output remaining firmly in expansionary territory in April. What's more, with domestic demand...

25th April 2025 · 5 mins read