UK Economics Weekly Weak productivity may keep domestic inflation sticky If the UK's recent dismal productivity performance continues, the Bank of England may need to wait for wage growth to fall further before it feels comfortable cutting interest rates. With the latest... 15th March 2024 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Shunto tide should lift wage growth among small firms This year’s spring wage negotiations resulted in the largest pay hikes since 1991 and we estimate that participating workers will receive a base pay hike of around 3.5%. While it’s mostly the large... 15th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Long Run Update Are weight loss drugs a game-changer? There are so many uncertainties that it remains unwise to get carried away by the potential economic boost from the latest wave of weight loss drugs. Nonetheless, if use of the drugs continues to grow... 14th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (March 2024) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data indicate some improvement in industry at the start of this year. But this... 13th March 2024 · 0 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Negative rates and YCC will end this month With this year’s Shunto resulting in larger pay hikes than anyone had anticipated, we now expect the Bank of Japan to end both negative interest rates and Yield Curve Control at the upcoming meeting... 13th March 2024 · 11 mins read
Global Economics Update Labour markets starting to support case for rate cuts The latest data from major advanced economies typically show that unemployment rates are rising and pay pressures are easing. While wage growth is still too high for comfort in most cases, we suspect... 12th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) The timeliest data support our long-held view that the euro-zone economy will remain close to recession in the first half of the year. Beyond that, we think growth will be much lower than the... 12th March 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Why is euro-zone productivity falling? Productivity in the euro-zone has been falling for well over a year. We think this is largely because it was unsustainably high in mid-2022 as many companies struggled to fill vacancies. Since then... 12th March 2024 · 8 mins read
RBA Watch RBA on course for rate cuts in August We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the recent flow of data has been on the weaker side of expectations, the Bank will probably... 12th March 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jan. 2024) The easing in wage growth in January is probably still a bit too slow for the Bank of England’s liking. But there are encouraging signs that a more marked slowdown is just around the corner, which... 12th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update April’s rise in minimum wage will keep the BoE on alert We doubt the big rise in the minimum wage in April will prevent wage growth from falling faster this year than the Bank of England has forecast. But the clear risk is that it supports wage growth and... 11th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Wage data point to June cut; worrying demographics Christine Lagarde’s comments following the ECB meeting and the Q4 wage data released this week support our view that the ECB will start cutting rates in June. Meanwhile, news that EU births fell to a... 8th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Feb. 2024) The Bank of Canada will be relieved to see renewed labour market slack putting downward pressure on wage growth. While the Bank will need to see wage growth soften further before it pivots to rate... 8th March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Feb. 2024) The 275,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in February may, at face value, add weight to the Fed’s view that there is no rush to start cutting interest rates, but the downward revisions to previous months’... 8th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Shunto bonanza opens door to March rate hike Developments over the past week have increased the chances that the Bank of Japan will end negative rates in March rather than our current forecast of April. Meanwhile, with childbirths hitting a... 8th March 2024 · 4 mins read
