Canada Economics Weekly The Bank should be less worried about high inflation The Summary of Deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s September meeting emphasised upside inflation risks. Our sense is that these risks won’t be realised, and so the Bank will gradually come round to... 3rd October 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Shutdown puts emphasis on alternative data The ongoing government shutdown is delaying release of official data for September and disrupting collection for October, leaving us to take steer on the economy from alternative measures for the time... 3rd October 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Hawkish BoJ tilt points to October rate hike While BoJ Governor Ueda acknowledged that Japan’s economy has so far shrugged off the impact of higher US tariffs, he warned that downside risks persist. Nonetheless, with the Governor admitting that... 3rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US ADP Employment Report (Sep. 2025) Although there is only a passing correlation between monthly changes in the ADP measure of private payrolls and the official non-farm payrolls estimates, the plunge in the former in September is a... 1st October 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Economy to be largely unaffected by shutdown Most government shutdowns have a negligible macroeconomic impact, often lasting just a day or two, and this one might be no different. Even if it drags on, the effects should remain modest, with... 1st October 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS suggests stagnant labour market The JOLTS data for August suggest a broadly stagnant labour market. Job openings were little changed in most sectors, while the private sector hiring rate and quits rates both edged down. An exception... 30th September 2025 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 25) Growth has remained broadly stable since the start of the year, despite US tariffs. Still, the economy is weaker than official figures suggest. Fiscal support and exports will continue to be key... 30th September 2025 · 0 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Weak economy to prompt more policy support The economy seems destined for a period of weak growth amid the US tariff shock and much lower immigration. We forecast average annual GDP growth of 1.0% next year, with a further rise in the... 29th September 2025 · 13 mins read
US Economic Outlook AI boom to offset drag from immigration curbs We now expect tariffs to have only a very limited impact on both prices and activity, with the AI investment boom and the immigration crackdown proving to be the bigger economic drivers. With the AI... 29th September 2025 · 16 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB "in a good place", for now... We think that the ECB will change its view that interest rates are “in a good place” next year. Growth looks set to remain slow by international standards, and we suspect that it will be weaker than... 29th September 2025 · 28 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone activity and sentiment remain subdued Economic growth in the euro-zone is likely to pick up a bit heading into next year, but we suspect that the improvement will be more muted than most anticipate. And the data released this week show no... 26th September 2025 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Data flashing mixed signals, New RBNZ governor With Australian inflation surprising to the upside in August, markets now expect the RBA to deliver just one more 25bp cut this cycle, rather than two. However, with business surveys showing output... 26th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (September 2025) The latest data are consistent with the world economy having recovered a bit more momentum in Q3. Industry has held up well, world trade has shrugged off tariffs, and an AI investment boom is underway... 25th September 2025 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Federal layoffs to weigh on job growth We forecast a 50,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in September, as the continued slimming of the federal workforce limits any rebound in private payrolls growth. We also expect the unemployment rate to... 25th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook A tale of two recoveries The Australian economy bounced back strongly in Q2, and it increasingly appears that the recovery has legs. In contrast, the New Zealand economy remains mired in a deep slump, and we believe that it... 25th September 2025 · 20 mins read
Canada Economics Update How concerning is elevated long-run unemployment? We suspect the main reason why the long-run unemployment rate has shot up is the surge in immigration since the pandemic, as many of these migrants have struggled to find work. This suggests the... 24th September 2025 · 4 mins read
