Latin America Economics Update The price of free time in Latin America Latin America is seeing a wave of labour market reforms that reduce maximum working hours with no reduction in compensation, which could raise inflation and reduce competitiveness. It appears most... 2nd June 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Minimum Wage Decision 2026/27 The strong increase in the minimum wage this year makes it more likely that wage growth will overshoot the RBA’s expectations, bolstering the case for additional policy tightening. 2nd June 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Wage growth accelerating despite weak activity The surprise 0.1% annualised decline in first-quarter GDP stole the headlines this week, but the bigger concern for the Bank of Canada was arguably the evidence of accelerating wage growth despite... 29th May 2026 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (May 26) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s economy slowed a touch in April. That was entirely driven by weaker domestic demand – China’s exports continued to rise on the back of strong global... 29th May 2026 · 0 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Resilient activity data point to rate hike next month While the BoJ’s measures of underlying inflation were the weakest they’ve been in years in April, the recent surge in input costs due to the Iran War will result in a renewed strengthening. Indeed... 29th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Activity, Labour Market (Apr. 26) & Tokyo CPI (May 26) The April activity data show that Japan’s economy is shrugging off the energy cost shock and cement the case for a BoJ rate hike next month. 29th May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Softer payroll gain and unemployment rate to rise We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by a smaller 65,000 in May, with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.4%. 28th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy growing slowly but jobs market will remain tight Italy’s unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level since the mid-1970s, but recent declines have been driven by young people leaving the labour force rather than rising employment. Even if the... 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update AI boom will not prevent Southern metros pushing ahead Within a sluggish national picture, metro jobs performance has varied widely with some cities - notably Washington D.C. - seeing big contractions, while others grew strongly - such as Las Vegas and... 27th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Could the BoJ lift rates into restrictive territory? The inflationary consequences of the Iran War have made us more confident in our view that the BoJ’s policy rate will climb to a neutral level of around 2% before long. However, the hurdles for the... 26th May 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Labour market too weak to generate big second-round effects We have been saying for some time that the current economic backdrop is much less conducive to a long-lasting bout of inflation than it was in 2022. This week’s news only adds to that feeling. As a... 22nd May 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA's work not done yet The jump in Australia's unemployment rate and the recent plunge in auction clearance rates suggest that the upside risks to our interest rate forecasts have diminished. Nonetheless, with underlying... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (April 2026) The strong pickup in Australia’s jobless rate in April makes it all but certain that the Bank will leave rates on hold at 4.35% at its June meeting. However, with underlying inflation set to... 21st May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (May 2026) If energy prices gradually ease in the second half of this year, as in our baseline, GDP growth should average 2.1% this year and pick up to 2.3% next year. Higher gasoline prices will weigh on... 20th May 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Mar./Apr. 2026) The sharp weakening in the labour market in April may help to restrain the recent upward march in gilt yields by highlighting that, so far at least, the Iran war is prompting businesses to reduce... 19th May 2026 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Apr. 2026) Domestic headwinds look to have intensified last month, especially when it comes to construction activity. But with external demand picking up and the electronics sector in an upswing, we still think... 18th May 2026 · 3 mins read
