Japan Rapid Response

Japan 2025 spring wage negotiations (Shunto) wage request

With Japan’s trade unions requesting an even larger pay hike in this year’s spring wage negotiations (Shunto) than they did a year ago, we now expect the negotiations to result in a base pay hike of...

6th March 2025 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Chart Pack

UK Economics Chart Pack (Mar. 2025)

While the 0.1% q/q rise in GDP in Q4 of last year was stronger than we and most other forecasters expected, the combination of higher taxes for businesses announced in last October’s Budget, a...

5th March 2025 · 1 min read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Unemployment (Jan. 2025)

The euro-zone’s unemployment rate in January remained unchanged at its record low of 6.2% for a fourth consecutive month, but other data show that labour demand is weakening. With the economy growing...

4th March 2025 · 1 min read

A major global slowdown? Parsing signals from the big three

Japan Economics Weekly

Japan Weekly: Demographic crisis worsening as births keep falling

Japan is now recording more than twice as many deaths as births, with that ratio only surpassed in war-ravaged Ukraine and celibate Holy See. While the number of employed people nonetheless hit a...

28th February 2025 · 4 mins read

US Employment Report Preview

US Employment Report Preview: Employment growth to evade federal cutbacks for now

We forecast a 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February, given that most of the recent cuts to the federal workforce won’t yet have shown up in the data and employment in weather-sensitive sectors...

27th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

ANZ Chart Pack (Feb. 2025)

Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The RBA began its easing cycle with a 25bp cut this month, but it appeared in no hurry to loosen...

26th February 2025 · 1 min read

Long Run Economic Outlook

Global megatrends will outweigh Trump disruption

President Trump’s trade and other policies might cause turbulence over the next few years, but they are unlikely to derail the megatrends which will shape the global economy in the long run. We still...

25th February 2025 · 1 hr, 8 mins read

Europe Economics Update

EZ negotiated wage inflation will fall sharply this year

The decline in euro-zone negotiated wage growth to 4.1% in Q4 last year is likely to be followed by further large falls this year. This is because tax-free one-off wage payments which lifted German...

25th February 2025 · 3 mins read

US Economics Weekly

US Weekly: Trump turns the screw on tariffs

One month after returning to the White House, President Donald Trump continues to issue new tariff threats, this week taking aim at imports of motor vehicles, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. His...

21st February 2025 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: RBA’s hands tied by the tight labour market

When the RBA cut rates by 25bp this week, it made it painfully clear that any further loosening of policy settings would be modest given the strong labour market. The Bank's concerns seem to be well...

21st February 2025 · 5 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2025)

The latest data suggest that, outside China, the world economy lost a bit of momentum heading into 2025. Around the turn of the year, manufacturing output kept treading water, retail sales weakened in...

20th February 2025 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Jan. 2025)

20th February 2025 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Tech sector “remixing” will keep US office job growth weak

It may seem odd that tech firms are likely to make further layoffs in 2025, while at the same time being one of the leading sectors for hiring intentions. But this broadly reflects cutbacks in less...

19th February 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Wage Price Index (Q4 2024)

19th February 2025 · 2 mins read