Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (November 2025) We expect euro-zone GDP growth to remain fairly slow in the coming years. Germany’s fiscal stimulus should provide a temporary and fairly modest boost, and we don’t think it will do much to raise... 6th November 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 25) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth will slow from its current above-trend rate to a more sustainable pace. However, with... 6th November 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Sep. 2025) Although wage growth picked up a notch in September, regular earnings growth remained lacklustre. That said, if we’re right that next year’s spring wage negotiations will result in a strong lift in... 6th November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Consumption won’t fall off a cliff Fears that weak payroll gains will cause a sharp slowdown in consumption growth over the next year are overblown. The immigration crackdown will prevent wage growth from slowing much further, and... 5th November 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US ADP Employment Report (Oct. 2025) The 42,000 rebound in ADP private employment in October lends support to the view that firms are resuming hiring now they have more clarity on trade and immigration policy. That said, the usual caveat... 5th November 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3 2025) The tepid Q3 jobs report should ensure that the RBNZ cuts rates by another 25bp at its meeting on 26 th November. However, given signs that the labour market is bottoming out, we suspect that this cut... 4th November 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update CE UK Wage Indicator suggests pay growth is stuck at 5% Our CE UK Wage Indicator extracts the overall signal from a range of measures of wage growth and suggests that while pay growth probably isn’t rising as fast as the official data suggest, it isn’t... 4th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s immigration boom set to continue While other major European countries have taken some steps to limit immigration, Spain has liberalised its immigration rules further this year. So we think immigration to Spain will remain very high... 3rd November 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) Recent developments reinforce the divergent outlooks for the Antipodean economies. The RBA has cut rates by just 75bp so far. Given the relative resilience of the Australian economy and ongoing signs... 3rd November 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Focus shifts from monetary to fiscal policy Despite the hawkish messaging from the Bank of Canada alongside its cut this week, we suspect it will be forced to resume lowering interest rates next year. For now, the attention shifts to fiscal... 31st October 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ on course for January rate hike While the Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged this week, Governor Ueda signaled that the Board won’t wait much longer before resuming its tightening cycle. Indeed, with structural labour... 31st October 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA on an extended pause, but easing cycle not over With underlying inflation in Australia having surprised materially to the upside in Q3, the RBA is all but certain to leave rates unchanged next week. However, unlike several other analysts we're not... 31st October 2025 · 5 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will remain on hiatus until Q3 2026 The RBA will leave its cash rate unchanged at 3.6% on 4th November. And with inflation proving stubborn, the Bank is likely to remain on hold until the second half of next year. That said, a prolonged... 29th October 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Oct. 2025) The slight decline in the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index in October leaves it at its lowest since “Liberation Day” and will help assure the Fed that another interest rate cut tomorrow is... 28th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) The latest data suggest that global GDP growth picked up to over 3% in Q3. World trade continues to shrug off US tariffs, global industry has been resilient, and lower interest rates have supported a... 28th October 2025 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Strong AI-related business investment and resilient consumer spending means we now expect growth to average near-3% in the second half of the year. The recent slowdown in employment growth and limited... 27th October 2025 · 1 min read
